AI Stock Picks Today: AMD, NVDA, MU Trade Ideas for August 26

Today's AI stock trade ideas: August 26, 2026

Nasdaq futures are edging lower Wednesday ahead of two binary events: the July PCE inflation print this morning and Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter earnings after the bell. The S&P 500 closed at 7,677 (+0.32 pct) and the Nasdaq at 26,151 (+0.66 pct) Tuesday, while the SOXX semiconductor ETF added 1.56 pct. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is also speaking at Jackson Hole today. This is not a drift session: volatility is elevated on both ends of the day. Size positions accordingly and treat options plays as full-loss risk capital.

How to read the scores: Conviction (1-10) rates setup quality based on price action and the catalyst. Risk (1-10) rates how much can go wrong: a 9 means a binary earnings outcome or extreme volatility. The 1-week and 1-month columns are rough probability estimates that the trade works within that window, not guarantees. Scores are spread across the board intentionally, not everything is an 8.

1. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD): LONG

AMD gained 4.91 pct Tuesday and is sitting a fraction below its 20-day moving average at $479, making this a clean pullback entry into a freshly upgraded name. Raymond James moved AMD to Strong Buy with a $641 price target, citing a server-CPU market it estimates will expand to $201 billion by 2030 and AMD's upcoming Helios AI rack, set to begin shipping in September. Management guided for more than 80 pct server revenue growth in the second half of the year, with Meta, OpenAI, and Anthropic among signed customers. This is a trend-following setup with a fundamental catalyst, not a momentum chase. The setup breaks on a close below $460, which would undercut the recent five-week base.

2. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA): $220 calls expiring Aug. 28 (OPTIONS)

Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 results tonight. The street is looking for $92 billion in revenue, up roughly 97 pct year over year, on EPS of $2.09. The $220 calls were last trading near $3.70 Tuesday, with a break-even of $223.70 (about 5 pct above Tuesday's close of $213.05). Notably, the $230 strike drew the highest open interest in the weekly chain at over 194,000 contracts, suggesting large positioning for a sizable move. A strong Blackwell demand update or a raised full-year guide is the catalyst. These expire Friday: the full premium is at risk if the print disappoints or the stock stays flat. Treat this as pure event-risk capital.

3. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT): LONG

Microsoft has quietly added 26.6 pct in the past month as Azure AI revenue accelerates and enterprise Copilot rollouts reach scale. The stock is 1.97 pct above its 20-day moving average and well clear of the 50-day, a clean uptrend with no earnings binary this week. A strong Nvidia earnings print and bullish data-center capex commentary would serve as an additional tailwind. Best ai stocks to buy today lists frequently cite MSFT for this reason: visible AI monetization with a relatively low volatility profile (realized vol 60.3 pct annualized vs. 85 pct-plus for AMD). A close below $470 would break the structure.

4. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU): LONG

Micron is the primary U.S. manufacturer of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and a direct read-through on Nvidia earnings. When Nvidia reports strong data-center demand tonight, it validates HBM demand for at least the next one to two quarters. Micron closed up 2.48 pct Tuesday at $932.97, sitting 3.4 pct above its 20-day average. Multiple tech executives recently cited rising memory costs as the key data-center bottleneck, which supports Micron's pricing power ahead of its next earnings report. The stop is $895, below the recent consolidation band. This is one of the best short-term ai stock trades if Nvidia delivers.

5. Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI): LONG

Supermicro surged 9.35 pct Tuesday after Cisco announced it would add Supermicro's liquid- and air-cooled servers to its Secure AI Factory with Nvidia portfolio. This is the second major catalyst in two weeks: the company's August 11 earnings report showed Q1 FY27 revenue guidance of $14.5-15.5 billion, well above the consensus estimate of $13.3 billion, with a record backlog of more than $60 billion in new Q4 orders. The stock is extended at 14.4 pct above its 20-day average, so intraday dips toward $37 carry better risk-reward than chasing the open. The invalidation level is $34, below the pre-surge base. Legal exposure related to global supply chains remains a tail risk.

More on the radar

• CRWD $190 calls (exp Aug 28, NYSE: CRWD): CrowdStrike reports earnings tonight. The stock is down 12.93 pct over five days, suggesting some pessimism is already priced in. Polymarket implied an 88.6 pct probability of a beat before Tuesday's session. Wall Street expects EPS of $0.29 on $1.4 billion in revenue. Risk 9/10: binary event, full premium at risk, do not oversize.
• PLTR long above $170 (NYSE: PLTR): 93 pct revenue growth year over year, up 31 pct in the past month, and consolidating just above $172. Government AI contract pipeline is the underlying catalyst. Conviction 6/10, stop $160, target $190.
• DDOG short (NASDAQ: DDOG): Down 11.46 pct in a month and 10.96 pct below its 20-day moving average with no visible reversal catalyst. This is a momentum short, not a thesis short. Conviction 6/10, stop $235, target $200. Cover quickly if the broader tape rallies hard on NVDA.

How we score these

Conviction reflects how cleanly the setup lines up: a strong named catalyst plus clean price action earns an 8-9. A weak catalyst or a choppy chart earns a 5-6. Scores are spread intentionally to reflect real differences in quality.

Risk is higher when the trade is a binary earnings event, has high implied volatility, or is in a thin name. A score of 9 means expect violent swings in either direction: size the position to absorb a complete loss on any options play before you enter.

Weekly and monthly probabilities are estimates based on setup strength, market context, and historical analogs for this type of trade. A 60 pct probability means roughly four out of ten times the trade does not work within that window. They are not guarantees.

These are short-term trade ideas for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading stocks and options carries substantial risk of loss, including the total loss of capital. Probabilities and scores are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and size positions to your own risk tolerance.