Today's AI stock trade ideas: August 24, 2026
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,674 (+0.43%) and the Nasdaq at 26,180 (+0.43%), holding firm even as the semiconductor ETF SOXX dropped -0.44% on the session and -5.5% on the week. The big story this week: Nvidia reports earnings, and the Fed gathers for its annual conference, giving the tape two macro catalysts that could set direction for the entire AI sector. Below are today's short-term AI stock trade ideas, scored and sorted by conviction. Conviction = how clean the setup is (1-10); Risk = how much can go wrong (10 = very risky). The weekly and monthly likelihoods are probability estimates, not promises.
| # | Ticker / Play | Type | Entry | Stop | Target | Conviction | Risk | 1wk | 1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $CRM - Long | Stock Long | $207-211 | $199 | $230 | 8/10 | 7/10 | 62% | 55% |
| 2 | $TSLA - Long | Stock Long | $360-366 | $340 | $392 | 7/10 | 6/10 | 58% | 52% |
| 3 | $NET - Long | Stock Long | $290-296 | $278 | $315 | 7/10 | 6/10 | 60% | 58% |
| 4 | $NVDA $225 calls (Aug 29) | Options | $3-5 | Full loss | 2-3x | 7/10 | 9/10 | 52% | - |
| 5 | $CRWD - Long | Stock Long | $189-195 | $180 | $212 | 6/10 | 8/10 | 55% | 60% |
| 6 | $MSFT - Long | Stock Long | $479-485 | $465 | $508 | 6/10 | 5/10 | 52% | 60% |
| 7 | $ARM - Short | Stock Short | $245-250 | $262 | $225 | 6/10 | 7/10 | 50% | 48% |
| 8 | $PLTR - Long | Stock Long | $177-182 | $168 | $195 | 5/10 | 9/10 | 45% | 42% |
1. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM): Long
Salesforce reports Q2 earnings on August 26, and the setup is as clean as it gets ahead of an AI-driven quarter. Agentforce ARR crossed $1 billion in Q1 and the combined Agentforce plus Data Cloud ARR is up over 200% year over year, according to the company's own disclosures. BMO Capital raised its price target to $230 from $215 in August. Polymarket put the probability of an earnings beat at 91% based on Salesforce beating EPS in six of its last seven quarters. The stock has climbed 33% over the past month but is only 8.6% above its 20-day moving average, not yet stretched. A close below $199 would break the rising trend and is the stop. Confirmation comes on the earnings print: revenue growth above 20% with Agentforce ARR continuing to accelerate would justify the $230 target.


