Today's AI stock trade ideas: August 25, 2026
The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% while the SOXX semiconductor ETF tumbled 2.7%, putting AI chip stocks under pressure ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report tomorrow after the close. Scores run 1 to 10: higher conviction means a stronger setup, higher risk means more ways the trade can fail. The two probability columns estimate how likely the idea pays off within one week or one month.
The scoreboard
| # | Ticker / Play | Type | Entry | Stop | Target | Conviction | Risk | 1wk | 1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | Stock Long | $485-492 | $468 | $530 | 8/10 | 4/10 | 65% | 72% |
| 2 | INTC | Stock Short | $86-89 | $97 | $75 | 8/10 | 5/10 | 58% | 65% |
| 3 | NVDA $215 calls 8/28 | Options Calls | ~$3.50-4.00 | 50% loss | $8-10 | 7/10 | 8/10 | 55% | -- |
| 4 | AMD | Stock Short | $454-462 | $478 | $420 | 7/10 | 6/10 | 52% | 58% |
| 5 | AMZN | Stock Long | $260-264 | $248 | $285 | 7/10 | 4/10 | 60% | 68% |
| 6 | CRM | Stock Long | $207-212 | $193 | $228 | 7/10 | 5/10 | 55% | 63% |
| 7 | PLTR | Stock Long | $172-178 | $158 | $198 | 6/10 | 9/10 | 48% | 55% |
| 8 | GOOGL | Stock Long | $346-350 | $333 | $368 | 6/10 | 4/10 | 52% | 60% |
1. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT): Long
Microsoft gained 0.8% Monday while the SOXX semiconductor index dropped 2.7%, a clear sign of relative strength worth respecting. The catalyst behind the stock's 28% one-month rally: fiscal Q4 2026 results reported July 29 showed Azure growing 43% with revenue crossing $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot seats reaching 30 million, per Microsoft investor relations. The Information also reported the company is targeting a Maia 300 AI accelerator chip reveal as soon as September, giving the stock a near-term second-half catalyst. The analyst consensus price target sits near $590 per Investing.com, leaving meaningful upside from current levels. The trade stops out below $468, the 20-day moving average support zone. Confirmation: continued strength above $492 on volume.
2. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC): Short
Intel priced a $20 billion common stock offering at $95 per share in mid-August, and the stock now trades at $87.26, leaving every deal participant underwater, per Benzinga. That creates textbook supply overhang: institutional sellers who bought the offering at $95 are sitting on losses and will sell into any rally. UBS cut its price target to $112 from $121 in August. The stock has lost 15.7% in five trading sessions. The short thesis breaks above $97, where offering-price sellers may find relief. Target: a flush toward $75, consistent with a retest of pre-rally levels.
3. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA): $215 calls expiring August 28
Nvidia reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday, August 26, after the close. The stock has pulled back 7.4% this week ahead of the print, improving the entry for pre-earnings bulls. The macro read is supportive: global semiconductor sales hit a record $120.6 billion in May 2026, up 104% year over year, per CNBC, and hyperscaler AI capex is still accelerating. The August 28 $215 calls last traded around $3.80, with 40,700 contracts changing hands Monday per the options tape. A post-earnings gap of 5-6% would push these well in the money. Maximum loss is the full premium; this is a binary event, so size it small.
4. AMD (NASDAQ: AMD): Short
Jefferies downgraded AMD to Hold from Buy in August, lowering its price target and questioning whether the company can hit its $10-15 billion AI revenue target for 2026-2027, citing intensifying competition from Nvidia, per TipRanks. AMD is 10.4% below its 50-day moving average and has shown no demand at $470 or $480. The stock also absorbed a $4.75 billion debt sale in August, adding supply. The short stops above $478, near the 20-day moving average. Target: $420.