AI Stock Picks Today: MSFT, NVDA, INTC Trade Ideas - August 25, 2026

Today's AI stock trade ideas: August 25, 2026

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% while the SOXX semiconductor ETF tumbled 2.7%, putting AI chip stocks under pressure ahead of Nvidia's highly anticipated earnings report tomorrow after the close. Scores run 1 to 10: higher conviction means a stronger setup, higher risk means more ways the trade can fail. The two probability columns estimate how likely the idea pays off within one week or one month.

The scoreboard

1. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT): Long

Microsoft gained 0.8% Monday while the SOXX semiconductor index dropped 2.7%, a clear sign of relative strength worth respecting. The catalyst behind the stock's 28% one-month rally: fiscal Q4 2026 results reported July 29 showed Azure growing 43% with revenue crossing $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot seats reaching 30 million, per Microsoft investor relations. The Information also reported the company is targeting a Maia 300 AI accelerator chip reveal as soon as September, giving the stock a near-term second-half catalyst. The analyst consensus price target sits near $590 per Investing.com, leaving meaningful upside from current levels. The trade stops out below $468, the 20-day moving average support zone. Confirmation: continued strength above $492 on volume.

2. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC): Short

Intel priced a $20 billion common stock offering at $95 per share in mid-August, and the stock now trades at $87.26, leaving every deal participant underwater, per Benzinga. That creates textbook supply overhang: institutional sellers who bought the offering at $95 are sitting on losses and will sell into any rally. UBS cut its price target to $112 from $121 in August. The stock has lost 15.7% in five trading sessions. The short thesis breaks above $97, where offering-price sellers may find relief. Target: a flush toward $75, consistent with a retest of pre-rally levels.

3. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA): $215 calls expiring August 28

Nvidia reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday, August 26, after the close. The stock has pulled back 7.4% this week ahead of the print, improving the entry for pre-earnings bulls. The macro read is supportive: global semiconductor sales hit a record $120.6 billion in May 2026, up 104% year over year, per CNBC, and hyperscaler AI capex is still accelerating. The August 28 $215 calls last traded around $3.80, with 40,700 contracts changing hands Monday per the options tape. A post-earnings gap of 5-6% would push these well in the money. Maximum loss is the full premium; this is a binary event, so size it small.

4. AMD (NASDAQ: AMD): Short

Jefferies downgraded AMD to Hold from Buy in August, lowering its price target and questioning whether the company can hit its $10-15 billion AI revenue target for 2026-2027, citing intensifying competition from Nvidia, per TipRanks. AMD is 10.4% below its 50-day moving average and has shown no demand at $470 or $480. The stock also absorbed a $4.75 billion debt sale in August, adding supply. The short stops above $478, near the 20-day moving average. Target: $420.

5. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN): Long

Amazon added 1.3% Monday while chip names shed 2-5%, holding comfortably above its 50-day moving average at $250. AWS is a primary beneficiary of the enterprise AI buildout, and the same hyperscaler capex cycle driving Nvidia's revenue also expands Amazon's cloud business. The trade invalidates on a close below $248. Target: $285, aligned with the channel established since June 2026.

More on the radar

• CRM (NYSE: CRM) Long: entry $207-212, stop $193, target $228. Salesforce AI momentum has driven the stock up 27.7% in one month and it holds above both moving averages. Conviction 7/10, Risk 5/10, 1wk 55%, 1mo 63%.
• PLTR (NASDAQ: PLTR) Long: entry $172-178, stop $158, target $198. Q2 revenue rose 93% year over year and guidance was raised to $8.15 billion for full-year 2026, per StocksToTrade. With a price-to-sales above 60, this one is richly valued; size conservatively. Conviction 6/10, Risk 9/10, 1wk 48%, 1mo 55%.
• GOOGL (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Long: entry $346-350, stop $333, target $368. Up 0.9% today as a defensive AI name, trading near both moving averages. Conviction 6/10, Risk 4/10, 1wk 52%, 1mo 60%.

How we score these

Conviction (1-10): How clean the setup is across technicals and fundamentals. A 9 means everything aligns tightly; a 5 is a speculative lean with a credible thesis behind it.

Risk (1-10): How much can go wrong quickly. Binary earnings events, counter-trend plays, and richly valued names score higher. A 9 means this trade can turn against you fast.

1-week / 1-month probability: A rough directional estimate of how likely the idea works within the given window, based on setup quality, catalyst timing, and each name's historical volatility. These are estimates and do not account for your entry timing or position size.

These are short-term trade ideas for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading stocks and options carries substantial risk of loss, including the total loss of capital. Probabilities and scores are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and size positions to your own risk tolerance.