AI Stock Picks Today: PLTR, NOW, CRM Trade Ideas for July 29, 2026

Today's AI stock trade ideas: July 29, 2026

The Nasdaq slipped 0.8% on Tuesday while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped another 2%, weighed by reports that a Chinese company has manufactured a functional immersion deep-ultraviolet lithography machine, directly challenging the monopoly long held by ASML, per NL Times. Enterprise AI software ran the opposite direction: Palantir surged 7%, ServiceNow extended post-earnings gains, and Salesforce climbed 6% after Agentforce annualized revenue crossed $1 billion for the first time. The divergence creates eight setups today, split between AI software longs and chip-sector shorts. Conviction measures setup quality (1-10); Risk measures how much can go wrong (10 = very dangerous); 1wk / 1mo are rough probability estimates, not guarantees.

1. Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR): LONG

Palantir reports Q2 2026 earnings on August 3, five days away. The stock jumped 7% on Tuesday to $131.53 as investors positioned ahead of a print where consensus expects $0.34 in adjusted EPS on $1.81 billion in revenue, per Yahoo Finance. That follows a Q1 beat where Palantir delivered $0.33 versus a $0.27 estimate, and Wall Street price targets have climbed as high as $200. The trade is to own the pre-earnings momentum. Stop at $121 sits below the recent consolidation base; target of $155 reflects the upper band of near-term analyst projections. What invalidates this: a broad market selloff before the report, or any signal that commercial deal flow is softening.

2. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW): LONG

ServiceNow beat Q2 2026 estimates on July 22 with adjusted EPS of $0.90 versus the $0.76 consensus and 23% subscription revenue growth in constant currency, then raised full-year guidance to $15.77 billion, per the ServiceNow newsroom. The AI Control Tower product is tracking toward $1.5 billion in annualized contract value by year-end. After the 6.86% session on Tuesday, NOW is holding its 20-day moving average, a sign of underlying demand at current levels. Stop: $97. Target: $122. Confirmation: sustained rotation out of semiconductor names into enterprise software over the next few sessions.

3. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM): LONG

Salesforce shares climbed 6% on July 28 after news of a three-year, $1.6 billion Department of Veterans Affairs contract covering Agentforce, Slack, MuleSoft, Tableau, and Data 360, per TradingKey. The contract validates the government AI push following Q1 fiscal 2027 results where EPS hit $3.88 versus a $3.13 estimate and Agentforce annualized contract value crossed $1 billion. CRM is now above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages for the first time in weeks. Entry: $171-176. Stop: $162, below the breakout level. Target: $196, where prior resistance clusters.

4. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD): SHORT

AMD fell sharply on July 28 after management guided for slower-than-expected adoption of its new AI accelerators in the current quarter, falling short of the aggressive market-share narrative investors had priced in, per TheStreet. Despite data center revenue growth, the forward guidance disappointed, and AMD now sits 6.9% below its 20-day moving average with no bounce in sight. The broader semiconductor breakdown from China's DUV chip-machine news adds a sector tailwind for shorts. Entry: $492-502. Stop: $522, above the breakdown level. Target: $455, where the 50-day average is converging.

5. Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) Aug 7 $140 Calls: Options

For leveraged pre-earnings exposure, the August 7 expiry covers the August 3 report date. The $140 strike holds the highest open interest of any near-the-money call in that expiry at 7,463 contracts, reflecting where the options market has concentrated. Last traded near $2.10. A post-earnings move to $147 or above -- the kind of beat-and-raise response Palantir has produced in prior quarters -- would push these calls toward $6-8 at expiration. Risk is high: full premium loss if the print disappoints or the stock stalls pre-event. Stop at $1.00. Verify spreads before entry, as pre-market liquidity is thin.

More on the radar

• MSFT LONG (earnings tonight): Microsoft reports after the close today. Azure AI cloud growth is the key line item. Stock at $389.10 with the lowest realized volatility of any name on this list (26%). Entry $386-391, stop $376, target $415. Conviction 6/10, risk 6/10, 1wk 53%.
• ASML SHORT: Reports of a Chinese company manufacturing an immersion DUV machine, per NL Times, challenge ASML's core moat in a segment it has dominated globally. The stock is 7.6% below its 20-day average and trending lower. Entry $1,650-1,680, stop $1,780, target $1,500. Conviction 6/10, risk 6/10, 1wk 50%.
• SOXX Aug $490 Puts: The iShares Semiconductor ETF at $516 is 8.1% below its 20-day average and near the weakest point of a three-month trend. August puts at the $490 strike capture continued sector deterioration. Entry $5-7, stop full loss at $2, target $14-18. Conviction 6/10, risk 7/10, 1wk 48%.

How we score these

Conviction (1-10): How clean the setup looks based on the catalyst, price action, and timing. A 7 or above is a solid setup; below 6 is more speculative.

Risk (1-10): How much can go wrong. High scores reflect options into binary events, high-volatility names, or counter-trend plays. A 9 means the position can lose its full value in a bad scenario.

1-week and 1-month probability: Rough estimates that the trade works in the given window. These are not guarantees -- some of these will miss, and that is normal. Size positions according to the stated risk score.

These are short-term trade ideas for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading stocks and options carries substantial risk of loss, including the total loss of capital. Probabilities and scores are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and size positions to your own risk tolerance.