Who's Next for the Moon? Betting Markets Weigh In

Markets are betting on which nation will achieve the next human lunar landing. The question of which country next to send humans to Moon before 2031 is a live event on the Kalshi prediction market, with significant volume indicating investor interest in the evolving space race.

AI & Tech

The race to return humans to the Moon before 2031 is closely watched. The United States holds a slight edge according to market sentiment, with 53.0% odds of being the next country to achieve this feat. China follows closely, with 41.0% odds.

This event is a key indicator of national space ambitions. The outcome could significantly shape future lunar exploration efforts.

The markets also reflect a strong interest in other space milestones. Bets are being placed on whether Blue Origin will land on the Moon before SpaceX, with Blue Origin favored at 67.0% odds before 2030.

SpaceX's own Mars ambitions are also a subject of speculation. Currently, the market gives SpaceX only a 31.0% chance of landing anything on Mars before 2030.

Further out, the possibility of human colonization of Mars before 2050 is seen as less likely, with odds at 19.5%.

The overall combined volume across Kalshi's active prediction markets, covering geopolitics, tech, and crypto, stands at $19.2 million.