Markets are placing bets on which nation will achieve the next crewed lunar landing. Current predictions favor the United States, with a 54% chance of being the first country to send humans back to the Moon before 2031.
China is the next closest contender, holding a 37% probability in these speculative markets. Other nations are seen as significantly less likely to reach this milestone within the same timeframe.
These insights come from an analysis of active prediction markets on Kalshi — All Markets, which collectively saw $20.6 million in trading volume.
Space Race Futures
The question of a country send humans to Moon before 2031 is drawing considerable attention. The market for a US landing before January 1, 2031, has seen $70.7K in volume, with a 54% implied probability.
The parallel market for China achieving this feat before the same date has traded $40.7K, reflecting a 37% chance.
Markets for India, Russia, and Europe to achieve this before 2031 are significantly smaller, with volumes of $7.8K, $7.4K, and $5.3K respectively.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
Broader Space Ambitions
Beyond lunar missions, traders are speculating on other ambitious space endeavors.
