Prediction markets are buzzing with activity, reflecting significant trader interest in geopolitical outcomes. The combined 24-hour trading volume across key markets has reached $46.9 million, with total liquidity standing at $60.2 million, according to data from Polymarket, All Markets.
Companies working on this
Profiles of the companies named in this story, with founding year, headquarters, and a short description from our database.
A blockchain-based prediction market platform for trading shares on real-world event outcomes.
- Founded
- 2020
- Location
- New York, United States
- Valuation
- $15.0B
In the 'War' category, the market predicting a US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 2026 has seen $2.1 million in 24-hour trading volume and $17.5 million in total volume. Traders are currently assigning a 19.5% probability to such a deal materializing by the end of May 2026, with potential returns of 5.1x.
This specific market, focused on the potential for a US x Iran permanent peace deal, highlights a persistent undercurrent of speculation regarding de-escalation between the two nations.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market continues to dominate war-related predictions, attracting $8.8 million in 24-hour volume. This suggests a higher immediate trader focus on that specific conflict's resolution, as detailed in Ceasefire Bets: Israel-Hezbollah Market Dominates.
Another significant market, 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by', has seen $1.3 million in 24-hour volume, indicating ongoing concern about wider regional stability. Traders are betting on a cessation of hostilities, as explored in Iran Conflict Bets Hit $13.6M.