The race to the public markets for artificial intelligence leaders OpenAI and Anthropic is drawing considerable attention, with prediction markets actively trading futures on which company will IPO first. Total combined volume across various prediction markets tracked by Kalshi — All Markets totals $16.2 million.
In the AI & Tech category, the question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will initiate an Initial Public Offering before 2040 is a focal point. Markets show OpenAI has a higher implied probability of IPOing first, with 'Yes' on OpenAI IPOing before Anthropic holding 81.0% odds (1.2x return) and $84.8K in volume. Conversely, the 'Yes' bet for Anthropic IPOing first stands at 26.0% odds (3.8x return) with $85.9K in volume.
These markets, while speculative, offer a glimpse into investor sentiment and perceived timelines for significant liquidity events involving these prominent AI firms. The substantial trading volume indicates a strong interest in forecasting the future financial strategies of these influential organizations.
Beyond the IPO question, other AI and tech-related predictions are being actively traded. Notably, the prospect of a country sending humans to the Moon before 2031 is drawing significant volume, with the USA holding the highest implied probability at 54.9% odds. Blue Origin's chances of landing a lander on the moon before SpaceX are also being debated, with markets favoring Blue Origin at 72.0% odds before 2030.
Further out, the question of whether SpaceX will successfully land anything on Mars before 2030 is seeing considerable activity, with 'No' bets currently favored at 74.0% odds. The potential for humanoid robots on Mars before humans by 2035 is also a point of speculation, with odds nearly split.
In other categories, the political landscape is also a subject of prediction. Markets are heavily focused on who will be Donald Trump's next Attorney General before January 20th, 2029, with substantial volume seen across various potential candidates. The election for Delaware governor in 2028 also features predictions, though with extremely high odds for both Republican and Democratic party wins.
