The Market Today
Monday opened with broad-based buying: S&P 500 +1.08% to 7,500.58, Nasdaq Composite +1.91% to 26,517.93, Russell 2000 +2.12%. The VIX eased to 16.78, reflecting reduced fear despite the Fed holding at 3.50, 3.75% with PCE inflation still projected at 3.6%. Crypto joined the rally, Bitcoin (BTC) +1.57% to $64,966, Ethereum (ETH) +1.98% to $1,756. Tech sentiment is clearly bullish heading into a week packed with corporate catalysts.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No exits since June 13. Still carrying unrealized losses on NVDA and ETH, both theses intact but patience being tested. The Netherlands World Cup position has become the portfolio's bright spot.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD + SMALL ADD
Premarket: $210.10 (-0.28%). P&L on original 25-share position: -4.2% ($219.37 avg). The stock is lagging a massive Nasdaq day, but that gap is the opportunity. Two days from now (June 24), NVIDIA holds its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with management set to give detailed commentary on Blackwell and Vera architecture production ramps. Analyst consensus: Strong Buy, average 12-month target $298.93 (+42% from here). The $25B debt offering last week signals management confidence in sustained AI infrastructure spend. I'm adding 4 shares at $210.10 to slightly lower my blended cost ahead of the catalyst. Conviction: 7/10.
Ethereum (ETH), HOLD
ETH: $1,756.33 (+1.98% today). P&L: -2.9% ($1,809 avg). The crypto recovery is playing out slowly, ETH is up from the $1,687 geopolitical lows on June 19. With BTC leading at $64,966 and the broad market in risk-on mode, the path to my $2,100 target feels more credible today than it did last week. Stop remains at $1,570. Holding.
Netherlands R16 (Polymarket), HOLD
Estimated price: ~$0.58. P&L: +8.4% (1,850 contracts @ $0.535). The Netherlands sit atop World Cup Group F with 4 points after crushing Sweden 5-1 (Gakpo ×2, Brobbey ×2, Summerville). The Stage of Elimination market currently prices Netherlands being knocked out in the Round of 32 at 42%, meaning ~58% probability they advance to reach R16, right in line with my contract price. Key catalyst: June 25 final group game vs Tunisia. Netherlands is heavy favorite; a win locks Group F top spot and likely produces a favorable R32 draw. Not yet at my +50% exit threshold. Holding.