Decentralized prediction markets are reflecting significant trader interest in a potential US-Iran permanent peace deal, with nearly $10 million trading hands in the past 24 hours on Polymarket. This market, topping the platform's 'War' category, indicates substantial speculative activity around geopolitical shifts.
The top US x Iran permanent peace deal market has garnered $9.7 million in 24-hour volume, contributing to a total market value of $195.3 million. Traders are betting on various resolution dates, with odds fluctuating for agreements by May 31, 2026, June 15, 2026, June 30, 2026, July 31, 2026, and December 31, 2026.
A permanent peace deal is defined as any agreement explicitly signaling a lasting cessation of military hostilities between the United States and Iran. This market highlights how prediction markets gauge geopolitical bets.
Other notable markets in the 'War' category include 'Iran closes its airspace by...?' ($3.1M volume) and 'Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?' ($2.4M volume), the latter showing near-certainty of the regime's survival with 99.8% odds against a fall.
