AI IPOs: OpenAI vs. Anthropic Bets

The race to the public markets between AI heavyweights OpenAI and Anthropic is already a betting proposition. Prediction markets are actively trading on which of the two generative AI pioneers will conduct its initial public offering first. As of this digest, markets lean towards Anthropic making its debut before OpenAI, reflecting current investor sentiment and strategic positioning in the rapidly evolving AI landscape.

This speculation is part of a broader trend of significant trading volume in AI and Tech prediction markets on Kalshi, All Markets. Beyond the potential OpenAI Anthropic IPO, traders are placing bets on a range of future technological achievements and geopolitical shifts.

AI & Tech Markets

The question of which AI company, OpenAI or Anthropic, will IPO first is drawing substantial interest. One market shows 76.0% odds favoring Anthropic to IPO first, with a return of 1.3x on a winning bet. Conversely, the market for OpenAI IPOing first has 27.0% odds, offering a higher 3.7x return, suggesting a higher-risk, higher-reward bet for those anticipating an OpenAI listing.

Other AI-related predictions include the race to the Moon, with the US currently holding a slight edge in market odds over China to be the next country to land humans. Blue Origin's lunar ambitions are also being wagered upon, with markets split on whether the company will land a lander before SpaceX lands its Starship.

Longer-term bets explore the colonization of Mars and the feasibility of humanoid robots on the red planet, underscoring the speculative nature of future technological advancements.

Fusion energy timelines are also being quantified, with markets betting on when this breakthrough technology will be achieved.

War & Geopolitics Markets

Beyond AI, prediction markets are actively assessing geopolitical and existential risks. A significant portion of the $7.9 million total combined volume is allocated to markets exploring the future of space exploration, such as the likelihood of Elon Musk visiting Mars. This reflects a broader interest in quantifying even highly speculative, long-term events, similar to discussions around AI IPOs: Betting on OpenAI vs. Anthropic, and the broader question of AI Giants Face IPO Test.

The potential for US acquisition of Greenland is a major driver of trading volume, with markets speculating on the terms and likelihood of such an event during a potential Trump presidency.

Concerns about climate change are also reflected, with markets predicting atmospheric CO2 concentration levels before 2030.

The political landscape in Israel is another area of active speculation, with markets forecasting potential successors to the Prime Minister role.

These diverse markets highlight a growing demand for quantifiable predictions on complex, uncertain futures, ranging from the immediate IPO plans of AI leaders to the distant prospect of interplanetary travel.

Last updated: July 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Has Anthropic filed for an IPO?

Yes. Anthropic filed confidential IPO documents with the SEC on June 1, 2026, targeting a listing on Nasdaq or NYSE in October 2026. The offering is led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. No share price or firm listing date has been confirmed; the timeline depends on market conditions.

What is Anthropic's valuation ahead of its IPO?

Anthropic's most recent valuation is approximately $965 billion, reached after a $65 billion Series H-1 funding round in May 2026. A market debut above $1 trillion is considered the base case scenario by deal advisors, which would make it one of the largest tech IPOs in history.

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

As of July 2026, prediction markets lean toward Anthropic going public first. Anthropic has already filed confidential IPO documents targeting October 2026. OpenAI has not announced a formal IPO filing, though it has explored public market options. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer active contracts on the outcome.

Where can I bet on the Anthropic or OpenAI IPO date?

Prediction markets on the Anthropic and OpenAI IPO race are actively traded on Kalshi (search "OpenAI IPO" or "Anthropic IPO") and Polymarket. Contract terms, expiry dates, and liquidity vary by platform. Always verify current odds directly on the trading platform.