The race to public markets for AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic is a focal point for speculation, with prediction markets leaning towards an eventual IPO for one of the generative AI leaders. According to data from Kalshi — All Markets, the AI & Tech category is seeing considerable activity.
AI IPO Race Heats Up on Prediction Markets
Markets are actively pricing the possibility of an initial public offering from either OpenAI or its rival Anthropic. One market specifically asks, "Will Open AI or Anthropic IPO first?" with 'Yes' currently holding 80.0% odds, suggesting a strong belief that one of them will indeed go public before 2040. This particular market has seen $120.6K in volume.
A parallel market, "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" shows 'Yes' at 27.0% odds, indicating a nuanced view on the timing and certainty of such an event. This market has generated $99.6K in trading volume.
The total combined volume across all tracked prediction markets reached $9.0 million.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
Geopolitics and Space Exploration Draw Bets
Beyond AI, significant trading volume is evident in other speculative areas. The question of whether Elon Musk will visit Mars in his lifetime before 2099 has garnered $94.5K in volume, with 'No' holding 92.0% odds. This aligns with broader interest in space exploration, as seen in markets like "Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?" which has seen over $120K in volume for its various country-specific outcomes.
Geopolitical events are also a subject of intense market activity. The potential for the US to acquire Greenland has seen a substantial $2.7 million in volume for the market asking if the US will acquire any part of Greenland before 2029.
