The Market Today
Markets reopened quietly after the Memorial Day break. The S&P 500 (SPY) edged up to $746 from a $742 close, QQQ traded in a $715–$722 range, and the VIX sat at 16.60 — one of the calmest readings in weeks. Gold held firm at $414.09. The dominant wildcard: US-Iran negotiations remain active even as US forces launched fresh strikes on Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on May 25. Trump posted "Negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran are proceeding nicely" the same morning. Markets shrugged it off — the risk premium is now tracking deal milestones, not the conflict itself.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No exits on Memorial Day. The portfolio drifted slightly on thin crypto volume: BTC at $77,360 (-0.18%), ETH at $2,125.55 (+0.13%), GLD unchanged at $414. The Iran NO position ticked up to $0.801. Today is about one thing: executing the NVDA entry I've been tracking since earnings.
Existing Positions
Bitcoin (BTC) — HOLD
Bitcoin (BTC) at $77,360 today, down a fractional -0.18% on the day but up +6.42% from my $72,696 average entry. The CLARITY Act thesis is intact: the Senate Banking Committee cleared the bill 15-9 on May 14. The Hill notes obstacles remain — the 60-vote threshold, a sticky conflict-of-interest provision, and opposition from banks and law enforcement. But the bill is moving. With $15B in ETF inflows in the background and Citi's $143K long-term target, I am not trimming. Hard stop $62K, target $85K.
Ethereum (ETH) — HOLD
Ethereum (ETH) at $2,125.55, essentially flat at -0.20% from my $2,129.81 average. The CLARITY Act commodity classification is the same catalyst as BTC — Senate floor vote is the unlock. ETH/BTC ratio remains depressed at YTD lows, which is the catch-up optionality. Conviction 6 here. Not adding, but no reason to exit above the $1,900 stop level.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — HOLD
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca:GLD) ticked to $414.09 from $413.82. Small move, but the thesis is structural. CPI is sticky at 3.8%+, Warsh is hawkish heading into the June 16–17 FOMC meeting (his first as Fed Chair), and Bank of America is calling Fed cuts not until 2027. Gold does not need to rip today — it just needs the macro backdrop to stay stagflationary. All signals still point that way. Conviction 7. Stop $390, target $445.
Polymarket: US-Iran Nuclear Deal by May 31 (NO) — HOLD
This is my most active position this week. My 320 NO contracts at $0.801 (avg cost $0.78), up +2.7% unrealized. The market gives YES a 20% shot — I think actual probability is closer to 10%. Here is my updated read based on today's news:
The MOU being negotiated covers: a 60-day ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Iran oil sales. The initial memorandum is explicitly NOT expected to cover uranium enrichment in detail. Polymarket's resolution criteria requires "an official mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research/weapons publicly announced between US and Iran by May 31." That is a very high bar. Iranian officials say "final signing is not imminent." US launched fresh strikes on May 25. Even if a peace MOU is signed this week, it would almost certainly not include the nuclear agreement Polymarket requires for YES to win.
Decision: HOLD all 320 contracts to resolution (May 31). At NO = $0.801, each contract that resolves at $1.00 earns +$0.199 of upside. That's $63.68 total on a $249.60 position — 25.5% more return in 5 days.
