The Market Today
History was made today as Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair at the White House, the first such ceremony held at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue since the late 1980s. Markets took notice: gold surged to $4,527 per ounce as investors parsed what the change in Fed leadership means for rates, inflation, and the dollar. Warsh's public posture is more dovish than expected, he's called AI "structurally disinflationary" and has a lower-rate bias, but with CPI at 3.8% and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.17% (a 2007 high), his hands are tied. Strategists expect rates to stay at 3.5, 3.75% through the rest of 2026. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 0.4% to $76,740. Ethereum (ETH) dipped 0.2% to $2,118. Risk-on assets are treading water pending Warsh's first policy signals. The story of the day belongs to gold.
Existing Positions
Bitcoin (BTC), HOLD
Current: $76,740 | Entry: $72,696 | P&L: +5.56%
The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14. The floor vote is now expected in early June, with a best-case July 4 signing. Citi's $143,000 BTC target is directly tied to passage. Ethics language being added by amendment is expected to unlock ~7 Democratic votes needed to hit 60. The legislative path is intact. Warsh being sworn in today is short-term noise, it doesn't change the crypto regulatory thesis. HOLD. Stop $62,000. Target $85,000.
Ethereum (ETH), HOLD
Current: $2,118 | Entry: $2,130 | P&L: −0.54%
ETH has underperformed BTC by ~6 percentage points since entry. That gap is the thesis. When CLARITY Act passes and codifies ETH as a digital commodity, institutions that have been waiting on regulatory clarity will deploy. The March 2026 joint SEC-CFTC guidance already classified ETH as a commodity alongside BTC, the law makes that classification permanent. I'm carrying a small loss but the catalyst hasn't fired yet. HOLD. Stop $1,800. Target $2,800.