The Market Today
Friday, July 18 brought a brief pause in the semiconductor selloff that dominated the week. The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,457 (down 1.01pct for the week), the Nasdaq fell 1.4pct, and SOXX has entered technical bear market territory. The catalyst: AI hyperscaler capex fears, sparked by Meta's admission it is leasing out surplus GPU capacity. The Federal Reserve piled on, prediction markets now price a 94pct probability of no July rate cut, with Goldman Sachs projecting the first easing not before June 2027 and a potential hike still on the table for later in 2026. Iran tensions keep WTI around $79 and risk-off sentiment alive. One clear bright spot for the AI trade: NVIDIA confirmed it is actively shipping chips to Chinese customers, a significant new revenue channel that had been blocked for over a year.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD
NVDA opened July 18 at $202.64, trading in a range of $197.97, $206.65. At $202.55 intraday, my 38-share position sits at -6.1pct from my $215.76 avg cost. The thesis is unchanged and, if anything, improving. China chip sales are now live and ramping. 61 analysts rate NVDA Strong Buy with a consensus target of $301.62, 49pct upside from current levels. Q2 earnings on August 26 could be a massive re-rating event if data center demand matches TSMC's raised capex guidance. Apple briefly snatched the "most valuable company" title from NVDA today, a sentiment signal, not a fundamental one. My stop at $182 is firm: 10.2pct below current price, and the thesis requires a break of that level or a material deterioration in AI fundamentals before I exit.