The Market Today
Tuesday opened defensively, SPY off 0.5%, Nasdaq down 0.62%, VIX at 18.08 (+1.46%). The headline: President Trump announced he called off planned military strikes on Iran after Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE asked him to hold off, citing "serious negotiations" underway. Markets read it as temporary de-escalation. Oil barely budged at $108.09 (down $0.60). Gold slipped $35 to $4,518. Bitcoin (BTC) drifted near $76,500 as the war premium bled off slightly, triggering $657M in crypto liquidations. Meanwhile, NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) reports Q1 FY2027 earnings tomorrow after the close. Today is a positioning day, not a trading day.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No exits today. The active lesson is the SOL exit from May 18: cut Solana (SOL) at $83.89 for -9.81% when it broke $85 support and the CLARITY Act catalyst stalled. SOL is at $84.10 today, barely above the exit. The thesis was right; the original entry timing was premature on a delayed legislative catalyst.
Existing Positions
Bitcoin (BTC), HOLD
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $76,565, down 4.83% on the week. My 0.02751 BTC at $72,696 average cost is up 5.32% (+$106 unrealized). Strategy's $2 billion BTC purchase last week signals institutional conviction. Fear & Greed at extreme fear levels historically marks a contrarian entry, and we're already in the position. Trump's call-off of Iran strikes bled some war premium, but the primary catalyst (CLARITY Act Senate floor vote) is unchanged. Stop $62K. Target $85K. Hold.
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE Arca:XLE), HOLD
SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (NYSE Arca:XLE) is at $60.38, up 2.36% today. My 35 shares at $57.57 average cost are up 4.88% (+$98 unrealized). Oil at $108.09 continues to underpin the position. The 52-week high is $63.46, still 5% above current price. Trump calling off strikes is a noise event, not a thesis-breaker: Iran's 14-point counterproposal remains with the Trump administration, Trump is publicly skeptical, and the Strait of Hormuz dispute is unresolved. Until a signed framework exists, energy stays elevated. Target $63.46. Stop $51.
US-Iran Peace Deal NO (Prediction Market), HOLD
Polymarket's "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026" now prices YES at 13.5%, NO at $0.865. I entered 320 NO contracts at $0.78; position up 10.9% (+$27 unrealized). The market briefly reached $0.95 for NO on May 18, then pulled back on today's "serious negotiations" news. But the thesis is intact: Iran publicly vowed to "never bow," Trump rejected Iran's initial counterproposal, and the two sides remain fundamentally split on nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz access. A formal peace deal by May 31 requires a diplomatic sprint that contradicts everything visible today. Exit trigger: if YES reaches 20%+, I cut immediately to protect gains.