AI Stock Picks Today: NVDA Pre-Earnings Long, AMD Breakout, MU and Short Ideas - August 18, 2026

Today's AI stock trade ideas: August 18, 2026

Monday's session closed with the S&P 500 off 0.17 pct, the Nasdaq down 0.28 pct, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) flat. Tuesday's ai stock picks today center on a pre-earnings setup in NVDA, a post-blowout AMD breakout above its 50-day moving average, and short setups in AMAT and AVGO where the technical picture has turned negative. How to read the scores: Conviction (1-10) rates setup quality; Risk (1-10) rates how much can go wrong quickly; 1wk and 1mo are rough probability estimates, not guarantees of return.

1. NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA): LONG

NVDA is the top ai stock pick today, 8 days ahead of its August 26 earnings call. Wall Street expects approximately $91.8 to $95 billion in revenue, up roughly 67 pct year over year, with GAAP EPS near $2.06 (nearly double the year-ago result), per Motley Fool and Intellectia earnings previews. The stock sits 7 pct above its 20-day moving average and 9 pct above its 50-day - a position of clear technical strength. The level that invalidates the trade is a daily close below $215 (back below both moving averages); confirmation comes on a test of the 52-week high near $236.54. Pre-earnings drift in dominant AI chip names historically runs into the print, and NVDA is the centerpiece of every institutional AI allocation heading into this catalyst.

2. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD): LONG

AMD is one of the best ai stocks to buy today following its post-Q2 breakout. The August 4 report showed data-center revenue of $6.7 billion, up 100 pct year over year, with Q3 guided to approximately $13 billion (41 pct growth), per Motley Fool coverage. Today's 6.5 pct surge pushed AMD above its 50-day moving average ($510) for the first time in weeks - a textbook momentum continuation pattern. CEO Lisa Su told CNBC the company expects data-center revenue to double again in 2027, driven by the MI450 GPU ramp and a 6-gigawatt Meta infrastructure partnership. Stop: a close below $495. Target: $560.

3. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU): LONG

MU gained 10.7 pct over the past 5 sessions and sits 9 pct above its 20-day moving average. The catalyst: Micron is guiding to a $50 billion revenue quarter as AI infrastructure demand drives memory consumption to record levels, per 24/7 Wall St. sector coverage. This is a medium-conviction momentum ride ahead of the broader late-August AI earnings wave. Stop: $940, a pullback below the 50-day average. Target: $1,050 - roughly 8 pct from current levels and consistent with the current trajectory in memory pricing.

4. NVDA $230 calls, Sep 4 expiry: Options

For a leveraged ai options trade on NVDA's August 26 event, the $230 calls expiring September 4 (two sessions after the print) offered near $6.45 per contract provide a defined-risk structure. Break-even at expiry is $236.45, near the 52-week high of $236.54. If NVDA beats and guides Q3 revenue above $103 billion - the analyst consensus watermark per Motley Fool - a run toward $245 would place these options near $15. The full premium is at risk; keep sizing small relative to a stock position. Open interest at the $240 strike (33,255 contracts) signals heavy institutional positioning above the round number.

5. Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI): LONG

SMCI carries the highest Risk score on today's board (8/10) but the earnings catalyst is real and recent. Super Micro reported fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.70 against a $0.94 consensus and guided current-quarter revenue to $14.5-15.5 billion versus an $11.84 billion estimate, per Yahoo Finance coverage from August 12. The non-GAAP gross margin hit 17.6 pct, nearly double the company's own 8-8.4 pct guidance range - the surprise that drove the initial gap higher. Stop: $35, a return to pre-announcement levels. The stock is up 65 pct in one month; position sizing is critical, and this is best ai stocks to buy now only for traders comfortable with high-volatility names.

More on the radar

AVGO SHORT ($390-395, stop $410, target $360): Broadcom fell 5.9 pct Monday as Bank of America flagged $370 billion in potential AI vehicle debt and a VMware security flaw (CVE-2026-59310) drew enterprise risk attention ahead of Q3 earnings in early September, per 247wallst and Quiver Quant coverage. Profit-taking after a large run and rising caution around AI capex durability add to the pressure. Conviction 6/10, Risk 6/10.

AMAT SHORT ($505-510, stop $528, target $470): Applied Materials fell 5.1 pct Tuesday, extending losses from its August 13 report where China revenue dropped from 35 pct to 28 pct of total sales despite a record $9.12 billion quarter, per Yahoo Finance. After a 108 pct year-to-date run, the valuation leaves no room for further China deterioration. Conviction 6/10, Risk 5/10.

How we score these

Conviction (1-10): How well-supported the setup is. A 9 means price action, a named near-term catalyst, and technicals all point in the same direction. A 6 means the idea has merit but the setup is messier or the catalyst less certain.

Risk (1-10): How much can go wrong and how fast. A score of 8 means the name can move sharply against you: elevated implied volatility, a binary earnings event, or a name trading far from its nearest support level. Size smaller on Risk 7 and above.

1wk / 1mo probabilities: Rough estimates of whether the idea works within the stated timeframe. These are directional guideposts based on current setup quality, not mathematical guarantees. Always use the stop levels provided.

These are short-term trade ideas for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trading stocks and options carries substantial risk of loss, including the total loss of capital. Probabilities and scores are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and size positions to your own risk tolerance.