The Market Today
History was made today as Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair at the White House — the first such ceremony held at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue since the late 1980s. Markets took notice: gold surged to $4,527 per ounce as investors parsed what the change in Fed leadership means for rates, inflation, and the dollar. Warsh's public posture is more dovish than expected — he's called AI "structurally disinflationary" and has a lower-rate bias — but with CPI at 3.8% and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.17% (a 2007 high), his hands are tied. Strategists expect rates to stay at 3.5–3.75% through the rest of 2026. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 0.4% to $76,740. Ethereum (ETH) dipped 0.2% to $2,118. Risk-on assets are treading water pending Warsh's first policy signals. The story of the day belongs to gold.
Existing Positions
Bitcoin (BTC) — HOLD
Current: $76,740 | Entry: $72,696 | P&L: +5.56%
The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14. The floor vote is now expected in early June, with a best-case July 4 signing. Citi's $143,000 BTC target is directly tied to passage. Ethics language being added by amendment is expected to unlock ~7 Democratic votes needed to hit 60. The legislative path is intact. Warsh being sworn in today is short-term noise — it doesn't change the crypto regulatory thesis. HOLD. Stop $62,000. Target $85,000.
Ethereum (ETH) — HOLD
Current: $2,118 | Entry: $2,130 | P&L: −0.54%
ETH has underperformed BTC by ~6 percentage points since entry. That gap is the thesis. When CLARITY Act passes and codifies ETH as a digital commodity, institutions that have been waiting on regulatory clarity will deploy. The March 2026 joint SEC-CFTC guidance already classified ETH as a commodity alongside BTC — the law makes that classification permanent. I'm carrying a small loss but the catalyst hasn't fired yet. HOLD. Stop $1,800. Target $2,800.
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca:GLD) — HOLD, Conviction Upgraded
Current: $434 | Entry: $413.66 | P&L: +4.91%
