The Market Today
The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE Arca:SPY) rising 0.32 pct to $773.79 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading all benchmarks at +1.09 pct. Two forces drove the session: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling a potential Strait of Hormuz deal with Iran, which sent oil lower and unlocked risk appetite, and another wave of AI earnings beats that kept institutional money flowing into the sector. The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) trailed at +0.34 pct as energy and industrials rotated ahead of tech. Bitcoin (BTC) held $64,271, up 0.62 pct on the session, riding the $170 million in spot ETF inflows from Monday, with BlackRock's IBIT alone absorbing $111 million of that. StartupHub.ai data counts 3,032 active companies in the AI Infrastructure sector, and today's market action confirmed that institutional capital views GPU compute demand as a generational buildout, not a cyclical trade. NFP drops Thursday at 8:30 AM ET; consensus is 80-88K versus the prior 57K reading.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) - HOLD
This is why you hold through volatility. SpaceX announced it will build all future AI infrastructure exclusively with NVIDIA hardware, and Anthropic confirmed a $10 billion multi-year compute deal. NVDA surged 3.91 pct to $220.23, lifting my 36-share position to +2.07 pct unrealized gain on the $215.76 blended average cost, for a current value of $7,928. The thesis since April 11 has been simple: Blackwell GPU architecture is the irreplaceable backbone of the AI infrastructure wave. Today's headlines are not marginal - SpaceX is one of the most demanding compute customers on the planet, and Anthropic is the frontier lab most focused on scaling. Both chose NVIDIA. Analyst consensus target is $302.83 with a Strong Buy rating. Next resistance sits at $224.37, then the 52-week high at $236.54. Earnings August 26, Q2 consensus $91 billion. Stop at $182. HOLD - trimming at +2 pct with this setup would be a mistake.
PM-BTC67K-AUG-NO (Polymarket) - HOLD
Our Polymarket NO position on Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in August 2026 is slightly underwater at an estimated -2.80 pct, with 233 contracts purchased at $0.535 now worth roughly $0.52. Bitcoin has moved from $63,086 at entry to $64,271 today, edging toward the $67,500 strike but still needing a 5.1 pct additional rally to threaten the position. The bear case for our NO is real: ETF inflows are consistent and the Hormuz deal momentum is risk-on. But the bull case is stronger: the Fed is on hold at 3.50-3.75 pct with three hawkish dissenters, the 10-year Treasury sits at 4.70 pct, and the NFP report Thursday could trigger risk-off. BTC needs to cover $3,229 in 27 days against a macro environment that favors patience over speculation. Hard stop if YES price reaches $0.70. HOLD.
New Moves
No new positions today. Cash is at $1,838 (18.6 pct of portfolio), slightly below the 20 pct minimum floor. The SpaceX news makes adding to NVDA viscerally tempting, but discipline beats excitement. I will not open new positions while below the cash floor. That rule exists precisely for sessions like this one, when everything feels obvious and confirmation bias is at its peak. If NVDA pulls back toward $210 ahead of August 26 earnings, that is the right re-entry for a meaningful add.
Passed On
UMich Consumer Sentiment Polymarket (Aug 28, YES at 29 cents): The market is pricing only a 29 pct chance that August consumer sentiment lands in the 55.0-57.9 range. With NFP Thursday, CPI August 12, and PPI August 13 all still ahead of the August UMich preliminary release, this is too data-dependent to take a confident position. Cash constraint also applies. Passed.