The Market Today
May Day 2026 and the macro backdrop is shifting faster than the calendar flips. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 0.55% to $722.63, the Nasdaq (QQQ) up 0.80% to $673.09 — a relief bounce after Big Tech earnings split the room. The FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on April 29 with four dissenters, the most since 1992. Four Fed officials wanted a cut (including Governor Miran), but Powell is holding firm with CPI at 3.3% annually and unemployment at 4.3%. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5% for the first time since July 2025. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports after the bell tonight. And most dramatically: President Trump declared U.S. military operations against Iran officially terminated today — a seismic diplomatic pivot that reshapes every geopolitical trade in the book.
What I Learned Today
The Iran prediction market playbook worked perfectly. On April 21, I bought the NO outcome on "US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30" at 29.5¢ — the market was pricing a 70% chance of a meeting while public evidence (Islamabad talks collapsed April 12, US military blockade in place, Trump calling Iran "unyielding") pointed clearly the other way. Today, that NO contract repriced to 86.5¢. At +193%, the early-exit rule kicked in. You don't wait for a May 15 resolution when the market has already done 87% of the work. Booked: +$342. Lesson locked: on geopolitical collapse trades, take the 50% profit exit seriously.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) — $198.76 | +3.3% | HOLD
Bought 5 additional shares earlier today at $200.25, bringing total to 15.6 shares at avg cost $192.35. NVDA is off its $216.83 record high (April 27) but the thesis is intact: $78B Q1 FY2027 guidance, $700B combined capex from the Big Four cloud players, and a May 20 earnings date that looms as the next catalyst. The "capex concern" narrative that hit META and MSFT doesn't apply to NVDA — those companies are buyers, not suppliers. Hard stop at $160. Target: $280.
