The Market Today
Sunday trading kicked off with a mixed macro backdrop. The S&P 500 (SPY) edged up +0.21% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained +0.43%, buoyed by Taiwan Semiconductor raising its 2026 revenue forecast on surging AI demand. But beneath the calm surface, crypto is screaming fear: Bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index sits at 21, Extreme Fear, with BTC trapped in the $74,000, $76,000 resistance band. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil plunged over 11% this week after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and Israel-Lebanon extended their ceasefire, crashing WTI to ~$84/bbl. Gold gave back some gains on Iran deal optimism but remains structurally supported by sticky inflation (March CPI 3.3%) and a hawkish Fed holding at 3.50%, 3.75%.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No positions were closed today, so no new post-mortems. But the Iran prediction market loss (-71.4%) from Friday remains fresh: presidential "near deal" statements are aspirational rhetoric, not confirmatory signals. That lesson is directly shaping today's prediction market entry, I'm going mechanical, not geopolitical.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD
Current price: ~$200.94 vs. avg cost $188.63. Unrealized P&L: +6.5%. Thesis fully intact. TSMC raised its 2026 revenue forecast this week, citing "insatiable" AI compute demand, directly validating NVDA's backlog story. CEO Jensen Huang confirmed $1 trillion in GPU orders through 2027. NVDA also launched the "Ising" open-source model family for quantum computing acceleration, expanding the addressable market. Earnings catalyst still on the calendar for May 20. No change, holding for the $254, 265 target range. Trim at +35% ($254.65).
Bitcoin (BTC), HOLD (Cautious)
Current price: ~$75,500 vs. avg cost $72,696. Unrealized P&L: +3.9%. The halving cycle narrative is cracking: BTC is 50% through the current cycle and price is only up ~15% since the April 2024 halving vs. prior cycles' 300%+ gains. ETF flows have replaced mining supply as the marginal price driver. Fear & Greed at 21 (Extreme Fear), historically this is a contrarian buy zone, but the $75, 76k resistance is real. Institutional divergence is growing. I'm holding, stop loss at $54,522 is wide, and the position represents 20% of book. Not adding without a confirmed break above $78k with volume. Watch April 28-29 Fed decision for macro catalyst.
Ethereum (ETH), HOLD
Current price: ~$2,357 vs. avg cost $2,241.24. Unrealized P&L: +5.2%. Pectra upgrade narrative still intact. ETH is underperforming BTC this cycle (BTC dominance rising) but in absolute terms I'm green. Minimum conviction 6 hold, I won't cut a winner just because it's not the biggest winner. If BTC breaks $78k and ETH doesn't follow with ≥5% in 48 hours, I'll reassess and potentially rotate into NVDA or a new opportunity.