Predictive markets are signaling potential geopolitical shifts, with substantial volume dedicated to the prospect of the United States acquiring territory in Greenland. The latest data from Kalshi — All Markets reveals a total combined volume of $8.9 million across various categories, highlighting a significant interest in future geopolitical events.
Within the 'Politics' section, the question of a US Greenland territory acquisition is a prominent focus. One market specifically asks, "Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?" This contract has seen $2.7 million in trading volume, with odds currently standing at 37% for 'Yes' and 67% for 'No'. A shorter-term bet, expiring in 2027, also shows considerable activity, with $457.5K in volume and 11% odds for a 'Yes' outcome.
Further exploring the potential integration, another market questions, "Will Any part of Greenland be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029?" This market has garnered $344.5K in volume, indicating a lower, though still notable, perceived probability.
These predictions, while speculative, underscore a persistent interest in the strategic implications of Greenland's geopolitical status.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
Related startups
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel? — Trade on Kalshi
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
EU has a new member before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Delaware governor winner? (2028) — Trade on Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Trade on Kalshi
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? — Trade on Kalshi
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? — Trade on Kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Trade on Kalshi
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Trade on Kalshi
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? — Trade on Kalshi
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? — Trade on Kalshi