Prediction Market Arbitrage: 4 Live Opportunities on Newsom, Shapiro, Emanuel, Kelly (July 12, 2026)

Our cross-venue engine detected 5 prediction market arbitrage opportunities today, July 12, 2026. Four are currently live, offering guaranteed payouts on 2028 US election events.

Live prediction market arbitrage board across Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt on July 12, 2026
Key Takeaways
  • 1
    Four prediction market arbitrage opportunities are live as of July 12, 2026, involving 2028 US election events.

  • 2
    Opportunities include Gavin Newsom for President, Josh Shapiro for VP, Rahm Emanuel for President, and Mark Kelly for President.

  • 3
    Returns range from 3.1% to 4.4% per $1 invested, before fees.

  • 4
    One additional arbitrage opportunity involving Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was seen earlier and may no longer be available.

  • 5
    Spreads can close rapidly, and fees/KYC/withdrawal limits will affect net profits.

Today, July 12, 2026, StartupHub.ai's cross-venue engine identified five prediction market arbitrage opportunities across Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood, and PredictIt. An arbitrage lock occurs when buying a 'YES' contract on one venue and a 'NO' contract on another for the same real-world event totals less than $1, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the outcome.

Four of these spreads are live right now, offering immediate opportunities for those quick enough to act. One additional opportunity was seen earlier and may have already closed, as spreads on these volatile markets can move very quickly. Please remember, this is not financial advice. Transaction fees, KYC processes, and withdrawal limits can impact actual returns.

Track these live, or poll the free API

The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the arbitrage board, and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them.

curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1

Read the arbitrage API reference or open the live JSON endpoint.

Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.

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Daniel Singer

Written by

Daniel Singer

Editor, StartupHub.ai

Daniel Singer is the editor of StartupHub.ai, a technology expert and thought leader on AI and its applications across sectors, from fintech and healthcare to developer tooling and consumer software. He writes and tests the tools covered here thoroughly and regularly, and built StartupHub.ai to give founders, operators and buyers a clearer read on what they are actually being sold.