Prediction Market Arbitrage: 4 Live Opportunities on Newsom, Shapiro, Emanuel, Kelly (July 12, 2026)

Today, July 12, 2026, StartupHub.ai's cross-venue engine identified five prediction market arbitrage opportunities across Polymarket, Kalshi/Robinhood, and PredictIt. An arbitrage lock occurs when buying a 'YES' contract on one venue and a 'NO' contract on another for the same real-world event totals less than $1, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the outcome.

Four of these spreads are live right now, offering immediate opportunities for those quick enough to act. One additional opportunity was seen earlier and may have already closed, as spreads on these volatile markets can move very quickly. Please remember, this is not financial advice. Transaction fees, KYC processes, and withdrawal limits can impact actual returns.

Live arbitrage right now These update automatically. Tap a leg to open the venue. Not financial advice.

Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?, Gavin Newsom. Arbitrage: 4.4% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on Polymarket at 12c, buy NO on PredictIt at 84c.
2028 Democratic VP nominee Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. Arbitrage: 4.1% ROI, locks 4c per $1. Buy YES on Kalshi / Robinhood at 4c, buy NO on PredictIt at 92c.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?. Arbitrage: 3.4% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on Polymarket at 2c, buy NO on Kalshi / Robinhood at 95c.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?. Arbitrage: 3.1% ROI, locks 3c per $1. Buy YES on Polymarket at 1c, buy NO on PredictIt at 96c.
2028 Democratic presidential nominee Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?. Combined cost 98c (no lock right now). Buy YES on PredictIt at 13c, buy NO on Kalshi / Robinhood at 85c.

See the full live arbitrage board or poll the free JSON API.

Track these live, or poll the free API

The board above refreshes on its own, so this page stays current long after today. The full cross-venue feed lives on the arbitrage board, and every match is also a free JSON API and an MCP tool, so a trading agent can poll live Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt arbitrage opportunities and act on them.

curl https://www.startuphub.ai/api/v1/arbitrage?arbs_only=1

Read the arbitrage API reference or open the live JSON endpoint.

Informational feed, not financial advice. Live arbitrages are often fleeting, and fees, gas, KYC and withdrawal limits eat into the spread. Verify each market’s resolution rules and costs before trading.

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