Peru Election 2026: Odds on Polymarket

Prediction markets are offering a glimpse into the potential outcomes of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. Polymarket, a leading platform for decentralized prediction markets, has seen substantial activity surrounding the upcoming vote, scheduled for April 12, 2026.

StartupHub data

Companies working on this

Profiles of the companies named in this story, with founding year, headquarters, and a short description from our database.

Polymarket

A blockchain-based prediction market platform for trading shares on real-world event outcomes.

Founded

2020

Location

New York, United States

Valuation

$15.0B

The market for the Peru Presidential Election Winner has generated significant volume, indicating strong investor interest. As of the latest data, Keiko Fujimori leads the odds at 93.5%, suggesting a high probability of her victory according to market participants. Roberto Sánchez Palomino follows with 7.2% odds, indicating a secondary contender.

Other candidates have negligible odds, reflecting the current market sentiment. This market will resolve based on the official election results, with a fallback to 'Other' if definitive results are not known by October 31, 2026. The substantial volume underscores the platform's role in aggregating foresight on political events, similar to its coverage of global political developments and geopolitical tensions.

The total combined 24-hour volume across all Polymarket markets stands at $28.7 million, with liquidity reaching $41.1 million, highlighting the growing trend of prediction markets as a tool for gauging future events.

Last updated: July 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the Peru presidential election 2026?

Keiko Fujimori won the 2026 Peruvian presidential runoff on June 7, 2026, with 50.1 pct of the vote against Roberto Sanchez of Together for Peru (49.9 pct). The margin was approximately 50,000 votes in a historically close race. It was her fourth presidential campaign after losses in 2011, 2016, and 2021.

When is Keiko Fujimori's inauguration as Peru's president?

Keiko Fujimori is scheduled to be sworn in as Peru's president on July 28, 2026 for a five-year term. She will be the first woman elected to Peru's highest office and the country's ninth president in a decade.

What were the Polymarket odds for Keiko Fujimori before the Peru election?

Prior to the June 7, 2026 runoff, Polymarket gave Keiko Fujimori approximately 93.5 pct odds of winning. Roberto Sanchez held around 7.2 pct odds. Prediction markets proved largely accurate, though the actual margin was far tighter than the odds implied.

Who is Roberto Sanchez Palomino?

Roberto Sanchez Palomino ran as the candidate for Together for Peru (Juntos por el Peru), a left-leaning coalition. He served as Peru's Prime Minister in the prior government and received approximately 49.9 pct of the runoff vote, making the 2026 contest the closest presidential race in Peru's recent history.