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Moon Landing Bets: Who Goes Next?

Prediction markets show the US as the frontrunner to land humans on the Moon before 2031, with China a distant second.

4 min read
Illustration of a rocket launching towards the Moon.
Prediction markets are betting on which nation will achieve the next human lunar landing.

The race to put boots back on the Moon is heating up, at least in the digital ether of prediction markets. Before 2031, the United States is the strong favorite to be the next country to achieve a human lunar landing, holding a 60% chance according to Kalshi, All Markets.

China follows with a 29.5% probability, a distant second in the speculative landscape. These odds reflect active betting on global milestones, showcasing a keen interest in space exploration's next chapter.

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AI & Tech

The AI and Tech category on Kalshi sees significant volume, particularly around ambitious space goals. The question of who will be the next to send humans to the Moon before 2031 is drawing considerable attention.

Market data shows the United States leading with 60.0% odds, representing a potential 1.7x return on investment. The market for this event has seen $64.1K in volume, with $30.1K in open interest.

The People's Republic of China is the next contender, with odds of 29.5% and a 3.4x return potential. This market has accumulated $36.5K in volume and $18.9K in open interest.

Other nations, including Russia (R), India (I), and Europe (E), lag significantly, with odds well below 5% and high potential returns, indicating a low market confidence in their near-term lunar ambitions.

Beyond lunar missions, other tech-related markets are active. The possibility of SpaceX successfully landing on Mars before 2030 is seen as a 31.0% likelihood, while Blue Origin landing on the Moon before SpaceX holds a higher 68.0% chance.

Discussions around the future of AI also feature prominently. The question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first before 2040 has generated substantial volume, with OpenAI holding a 79.0% chance of going public first.

The possibility of nuclear fusion being achieved before 2030 is also a point of speculation, with varied odds across different target dates.

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War & Geopolitics

In the War & Geopolitics section, the long-term prospect of Elon Musk visiting Mars in his lifetime is being bet on, with a 92.0% chance he will not make it before 2099. For context on similar speculative bets, see our Kalshi: 50x Bet Alert + 7 High-Volume Markets.

Markets also touch upon geopolitical shifts, including the potential for EU expansion by 2030, where there's a strong 76.0% likelihood of new members joining. This topic was also covered in Kalshi: 50x Greenland Bet + 8 More High-Return Picks.

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Politics

The political landscape is dominated by speculation surrounding Donald Trump. A significant $3.3 million has been bet on whether Trump will buy at least part of Greenland during his term, with a 73.0% chance against it.

The potential for Trump's next Attorney General is also a high-volume market, with considerable betting activity on various potential candidates.

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#Space Exploration#Moon Landing#Kalshi#Prediction Markets#United States#China#AI#Technology#Geopolitics#Politics