Traders on Polymarket are placing substantial bets on the duration of the ongoing conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States. The total volume across active markets has surged, with nearly $59 million in 24-hour trading volume and $32 million in liquidity.
The primary focus is on the Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by... market, which has seen over $10.5 million in 24-hour volume alone. This market, set to resolve in March 2026, shows an overwhelming consensus that the conflict will end well before then. Multiple outcomes predict a resolution by April, May, or June 2026, with probabilities hovering near 99.7% to 99.9%. This reflects a strong market sentiment that a significant de-escalation is anticipated within the next two years.
This robust activity in geopolitical prediction markets highlights a growing trend, as seen in the Iran Conflict Bets Surge report.
Geopolitical Betting Trends
Beyond the direct conflict resolution, other markets indicate a focus on diplomatic outcomes. The US x Iran ceasefire extended by... market, with $4.1 million in 24-hour volume, suggests traders are hedging their bets on continued diplomatic efforts. Similarly, a market predicting a US x Iran diplomatic meeting has attracted $3.5 million in trading.
Under the 'War' category, a market on a US x Iran permanent peace deal has seen $8.9 million in volume. However, the odds for this are significantly lower, with the April 2026 resolution currently holding only a 0.4% chance. Another market asks if the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027, with 'No' holding a strong 71% probability.