SpaceX Stock Surges 16% on Q2 Earnings Beat and Argus Buy Upgrade

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) surged 15.8% on August 9, 2026, closing at $133.11 as investors responded to the company's blowout second-quarter results and an analyst upgrade from Argus Research. The one-day gain capped a two-day rally of roughly 23% that added more than $327 billion in market value, according to Bloomberg, lifting SpaceX's market capitalization to approximately $1.75 trillion.

SpaceX reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and well ahead of analyst estimates of $6.81 billion, per Bloomberg. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.5 billion. The company posted a net loss of $541 million for the quarter, reflecting ongoing capital investment in Starship development and the continued expansion of its Starlink satellite constellation.

Argus upgrades SPCX to Buy with $160 target

Argus Research upgraded SpaceX to Buy from Hold on August 7, 2026, setting a 12-month price target of $160. The $160 target represents approximately 20% upside from the August 9 closing price of $133.11. Argus cited the strength of the Starlink subscriber base and SpaceX's competitive positioning in the commercial launch market as key drivers of the upgrade.

The timing of the Argus upgrade, coinciding with the earnings release and lockup expiration, amplified the market response. Retail and institutional buyers alike moved into SPCX stock, pushing volume to 240.6 million shares on August 9, a level consistent with a major catalyst session.

Lockup expiration produces no meaningful selling pressure

The first post-IPO lockup period for SpaceX insiders expired on August 7, 2026, roughly 56 days after the company's June 12 Nasdaq debut. Analysts had flagged the lockup expiration as a potential source of selling pressure, as employees and pre-IPO investors would gain the ability to liquidate positions for the first time since the listing.

Instead, the market absorbed any insider supply without disruption. The stock rose on both the August 7 and August 8 sessions following lockup expiration, and the August 9 earnings-driven move capped the run. The absence of meaningful selling may reflect reduced incentive for insiders to sell, as the stock had spent several weeks trading below its IPO reference price before the Q2 results reversed that trend.

Q2 2026: revenue acceleration driven by Starlink

The 92% year-over-year revenue jump to $7.8 billion reflects the continued scaling of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service, which now serves millions of residential and enterprise subscribers globally, alongside commercial launch contracts for the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. SpaceX does not break out segment-level revenue in its public filings, but the magnitude of growth suggests Starlink is the primary contributor to the acceleration.

The 191% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $3.5 billion points to significant operating leverage as the Starlink business scales, even as the $541 million net loss reflects the capital intensity of programs not yet generating returns at scale, including Starship and next-generation satellite hardware.

Terafab: semiconductor investment adds a new growth narrative

Separately from the earnings report, SpaceX and Tesla announced a joint $16.8 billion investment in a semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas, to be called Terafab. The facility is expected to create at least 3,000 jobs and is designed to support both companies' artificial intelligence infrastructure needs. The announcement adds an AI hardware dimension to SpaceX's investment story beyond its core launch and internet connectivity businesses, though the facility is not expected to generate revenue for several years.

What to watch next

Investors are now focused on Starship's commercial launch cadence, Starlink international subscriber growth, and the pace of margin expansion as key indicators ahead of the next quarterly report, expected in November 2026. Argus Research's $160 price target provides a near-term analyst reference, but SpaceX's valuation depends heavily on execution across programs still in early commercial phases. The lockup expiration has now passed without incident, removing a key technical overhang from the stock.

For a complete overview of SpaceX's stock, valuation history, and how to invest, see our SpaceX stock hub (NASDAQ: SPCX).

Not investment advice.