SpaceX Stock Slides 2.6% Ahead of Second Share Unlock on August 20

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) fell 2.6% to $139.65 on August 18, 2026, as investors positioned ahead of a second tranche of post-IPO shares set to unlock on August 20. Approximately 319 million shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale on Wednesday, according to CryptoBriefing, marking the second in a series of staggered unlocks the company structured to minimize market disruption after its June 2026 IPO.

What is unlocking on August 20?

Roughly 319 million SPCX shares are set to unlock on August 20, 2026, per CryptoBriefing's analysis of SpaceX's post-IPO lockup schedule. This is the second tranche in what the company designed as a multi-stage release rather than a single lockup expiry date.

The first unlock took place on August 6, when 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale. That event passed more smoothly than many analysts had anticipated: SPCX rose approximately 6% on August 6, per CNN Business, as investors read the limited selling as a sign of strong holder conviction.

Family offices were reported to hold $3.8 billion worth of SPCX shares heading into the August period, according to an Investing.com analysis of the lockup countdown. It is not known how much of that position was liquidated in the August 6 tranche or how much remains.

Why the stock is down ahead of the unlock

SPCX traded in a range of $139.41 to $146.46 on August 18 before closing at $139.65 on volume of 72.5 million shares -- more than double average daily volume in recent sessions. The decline is consistent with pre-unlock repositioning, as some holders reduce exposure ahead of potential selling pressure from newly unlocked shares.

The move comes despite strong fundamental momentum for the company. SpaceX reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $7.81 billion, beating the $6.93 billion analyst consensus, and the stock rebounded above its $135 IPO price in mid-August after falling below it in early August, according to CNBC.

The broader lockup schedule

The August 20 unlock is not the last. According to CryptoBriefing and Investing.com, SpaceX's lockup calendar extends well into 2027:

• Through December 2026: Approximately 4.9 billion shares total are expected to unlock in additional tranches.
• June 2027: Elon Musk's personal holdings unlock. Analysts have described this event as the defining test of long-term institutional demand for the stock.

Forbes reported on August 14, 2026, that retail investors who bought after the first unlock may have underestimated the total share supply still to come, noting that "nearly a billion shares haven't arrived yet" from the August 6 tranche alone due to settlement and transfer timing.

What analysts say

Despite near-term unlock uncertainty, analyst sentiment on SPCX remains firmly positive. Twenty-eight of 30 analysts tracked by Investing.com rate the stock a Buy, with an average 12-month price target of $222.73 -- a 59% premium to the August 18 close. The high estimate is $450; the low is $117.

SpaceX's revenue diversification -- between Starlink broadband subscriptions and government and commercial launch contracts -- is the primary driver of the bull case. The company is also advancing Starship, which, if operational at scale, would significantly expand addressable payload and crew-delivery markets.

What to watch around the August 20 unlock

• Volume: Heavy volume on August 20 would signal that locked-up holders are selling into the unlock. Light volume, as in August 6, would suggest continued conviction holding.
• Price action relative to the IPO level: SPCX is trading 3.5% above its $135 IPO price. A close below $135 on unlock volume would be a watch signal for technical traders.
• Subsequent tranches: Additional unlocks are expected through December 2026. Each event may carry similar short-term positioning dynamics.

Related: Full SpaceX stock guide (SPCX): price, valuation, how to buy | IPO Watch coverage

Not investment advice.