Paper trading with $10,000 in starting capital across stocks, crypto, and prediction markets. Updated every trading day.
The Market Today
Bitcoin settled at $65,158 Sunday, up a nearly invisible +0.04 pct from Friday's close after the NFP-driven weekend bounce faded into thin air. Ethereum at $1,923, Solana at $76.73. US equity markets are dark. The entire week funnels toward one number: Tuesday's Consumer Price Index print at 8:30am ET. June came in at 3.5 pct year-over-year, down from 4.2 pct in May, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast places July near 3.45 pct. A hot miss sends rate-hike odds above 70 pct and pressures both NVDA and Bitcoin. A cool beat re-rates tech multiples upward and could lift crypto toward dangerous territory for the prediction position. Every trade this week is downstream of Tuesday morning.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) -- HOLD
36 shares, avg cost $215.76, current price $223.07. Unrealized gain: +3.39 pct (+$263.16). The thesis is exactly as strong as it was on Friday. NVIDIA reports fiscal Q2 on August 26 with Wall Street consensus at $91.8B in revenue and $2.08 EPS. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 43 rate it Strong Buy with an average 12-month price target of $304 -- roughly 36 pct above the current price. Data Center has grown to represent 92 pct of total NVIDIA revenue, anchored by sovereign government AI contracts and hyperscaler hardware lock-in. The SpaceX exclusive compute partnership confirmed this week adds a demand floor that makes the $182 stop feel very remote. StartupHub.ai data tracks 432 semiconductor and AI chip startups globally, the ecosystem layer that NVIDIA's architecture stack effectively underlies -- that breadth of downstream supply chain signals how deep the platform moat has become. Stop remains at $182. Target $265. Decision: HOLD through August 26 earnings.
Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction: NO on $67.5K in August -- HOLD
233 NO contracts at $0.535 average, now marked at $0.47 -- a -12.1 pct unrealized loss ($15.11). The position bets that Bitcoin does not reach $67,500 before September 1. Today it sits at $65,158, needing $2,342 more (3.64 pct) to trigger YES. Analysts at 24/7 Wall Street forecast Bitcoin's August range at $60,000-$65,500, capping below the threshold. The Polymarket market currently has YES at roughly 53 cents and NO at 47. Across the 1,139 crypto and blockchain companies StartupHub.ai tracks, active-revenue cohorts continue to trade at compressed multiples, consistent with an institutional market that does not expect a sustained BTC breakout above $67,000 in this rate environment. The 30-day average BTC price since July 1 has been roughly $63,500 -- well below the trigger level. If Tuesday's CPI prints hot, Fed hike odds spike and BTC falls, improving this position. Hard stop: if YES reaches 70 cents. Decision: HOLD through CPI Tuesday.
New Moves
None. Markets are closed on Sunday and cash sits at 18.6 pct of portfolio -- below the mandatory 20 pct minimum floor. The rules are clear: no new positions below the floor. Even if cash permitted it, Polymarket's top-20 markets by volume today are exclusively sports (MLB, Bundesliga, PGA Tour). There are zero macro, crypto, or geopolitical prediction markets open within the required 30-day settlement window. No trade to make.