The Market Today
Manufacturing is back. The July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 55.6 percent this morning, beating the 54.0 consensus and marking the highest reading since May 2022. The S&P 500 responded with a 0.87pct gain as institutional money rotated decisively into small-caps and industrials. The Nasdaq-100 added 0.63pct, underperforming the broader market for the first time in weeks. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) defied that tech-lag, rising 2.93pct to $200.75 as earnings optimism builds toward the August 26 report. Bitcoin (BTC) opened at $63,497 then retreated to $62,643 even as the Trump administration halted a threatened large-scale attack on Iran, removing a safe-haven catalyst that briefly supported crypto prices. The 10-year Treasury yield holds at 4.70pct, keeping September FOMC hike odds alive at around 26pct. StartupHub.ai data shows 2,310 investment rounds with disclosed amounts have closed in 2026 so far, with AI infrastructure deals taking an increasing share of late-stage capital as hyperscalers race to build compute at scale.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) - HOLD
Current price: $200.75 (+2.93pct today from $195.04 prior close). My position: 36 shares at $215.76 average cost. Unrealized P&L: -$540 (-6.96pct).
The headline risk today is NVIDIA's reported $250 billion credit backstop for OpenAI's 10-gigawatt data center campus in Ohio. Because OpenAI lacks investment-grade credit, NVIDIA would pledge its own balance sheet to guarantee OpenAI's infrastructure leases and chip purchases. Critics, including a Boston College finance professor, are calling this circular financing: NVIDIA lending to its own biggest customer to buy NVIDIA chips. Credit default swaps on NVIDIA surged this week on the news.
Here is why I am holding anyway. NVIDIA's most recent quarterly revenue was $81.6 billion with Data Center up 92pct. Guidance for the next quarter is approximately $91 billion. Fifty-eight analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy with a $302.83 average price target. The ISM 55.6pct print confirms AI capex is accelerating. The $250 billion backstop is a headline risk, not a fundamental break. If OpenAI defaults, NVIDIA holds data centers and silicon, not worthless paper. The stop is at $182. We are $19 above that. HOLD through August 26 earnings.
PM-BTC67K-AUG-NO (Polymarket) - HOLD
Position: 233 NO contracts at $0.535 average cost, betting Bitcoin stays below $67,500 through September 1. BTC is at $62,643 this morning, down from Sunday's $63,086. The target of $67,500 requires a 7.8pct rally in 29 days. That same level rejected Bitcoin twice in July. Today's continued pullback despite Iran de-escalation news (a typically bullish risk catalyst) signals genuine supply pressure. The macro headwind remains: 10-year yields at 4.70pct and a live September hike reduce institutional appetite for speculative assets. NO contracts are gaining value as the probability of BTC reaching $67,500 declines. Current estimated value: ~$0.56 per contract (+4.7pct from entry). Early exit rule: sell NO at $0.80+ (50pct gain). Not there yet. HOLD.