The Market Today
Wednesday markets traded cautiously as investors braced for Friday's non-farm payrolls report while digesting a clear hawkish shift from Federal Reserve officials. The Nasdaq (QQQ) fell 0.90 pct Tuesday as AI spending durability fears surfaced: Datadog warned of reduced usage from a major AI customer, and memory chip stocks at SanDisk and Western Digital tumbled despite earnings beats. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) held at $219.51 (+0.13 pct intraday) as SpaceX's exclusive NVIDIA AI infrastructure announcement from Tuesday provided a floor. But the muted gain underscores the macro weight: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled openness to a September rate hike "if upcoming inflation data surprises to the upside," and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urged the committee to "start slowly moving rates up now." The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.70 pct, an 18-month high. Initial jobless claims for the week through August 1 came in at 199,000, edging slightly higher but still historically tight. StartupHub.ai tracks 2,368 AI infrastructure companies globally, and the concentration of exclusive compute partnerships around NVIDIA continues to widen the gap between the dominant hardware supplier and every alternative.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) - HOLD
Entry: $215.76 avg | Current: $219.51 | Unrealized P&L: +1.74 pct | Stop: $182 | Target: $265
SpaceX going all-in on NVIDIA hardware for AI infrastructure is the most direct validation of the long thesis. Add Azio AI's pipeline for 128 HGX B300 GPU systems (~$77 million), Zayo deploying critical AI network capacity, and 61 analysts sitting at "Strong Buy" with a $302.83 price target - the demand story is intact. But the stock's nearly flat response today (+0.13 pct) reveals what's really driving the tape: hawkish Fed officials (Warsh, Kashkari) and AI capex durability doubts are capping high-multiple tech across the board. NFP tomorrow is the binary catalyst. Strong print (+100K) cements higher-for-longer and puts pressure on NVDA at current multiples. Weak print (+40-50K) opens a tech relief rally. Stop at $182 remains firm. Conviction 7/10. Holding through August 26 earnings where Q2 consensus sits at $91B revenue.
Bitcoin NO Prediction - PM-BTC67K-AUG-NO - HOLD
Entry: $0.535 avg | Current: ~$0.52 (est.) | Unrealized P&L: -2.80 pct | Resolution: September 1, 2026
Holding NO on "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 by September 1?" Bitcoin (BTC) sits at $64,483 today (+0.26 pct), needing a +4.7 pct surge to trigger the YES side. The Fed's hawkish pivot is the single most powerful tailwind for this position: Warsh and Kashkari both signaling September action directly suppresses risk asset momentum. NFP tomorrow creates a clean binary - strong print (+80K or more) further cements the hawkish narrative and compresses BTC upside. Weak print risks a brief crypto lift that could test our NO. With 26 days remaining until September 1 resolution, time decay is working. The main risk: another wave of ETF inflows like the $170M surge on August 4 (BlackRock IBIT alone pulled $111M). If YES rallies to $0.70, we cut. Current conviction 7/10.