The Market Today
Goldman Sachs opened Monday with a significant call: a September Federal Reserve rate hike is "very unlikely." September hike probability fell from around 60 pct last week to approximately 30 pct by mid-morning, driven by three consecutive soft data prints - July non-farm payrolls at -23K (missed by nearly 100K), retail sales down 0.6 pct in July, and CPI at 3.4 pct year-over-year with core at 2.5 pct. The S&P 500 opened slightly lower (-0.1 pct), the Nasdaq edged up 0.16 pct, and the Dow fell 0.3 pct. The 10-year Treasury holds at 4.70 pct; the 30-year hit 5.22 pct at auction - the highest issuance yield since 2001. Retail earnings dominate the week: Home Depot (NYSE:HD) Tuesday before open, Target (NYSE:TGT) and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) Wednesday, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) Thursday. FOMC minutes from the July 28-29 meeting release Wednesday at 2 pm ET. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings on August 26 after the close. Jackson Hole begins August 27. StartupHub.ai data shows 432 semiconductor and AI chip startups in our index, the sector most tightly correlated to the NVDA earnings cycle that begins in nine days.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No exits over the weekend. Both positions held through Sunday unchanged. The consistent lesson from the past two weeks: when the thesis is intact and the settlement catalyst is still days away, patience is the trade. Forcing activity in thin weekend markets serves no purpose. NVDA's August 26 earnings print and Bitcoin's September 1 Polymarket resolution will do the work.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) - HOLD
NVDA opened in pre-market at $226.44 and is trading at $226.70 in mid-morning trade, up 0.68 pct from Friday's $225.16 close. The position is up 5.07 pct from our $215.76 average cost across 35 shares, representing $7,934.50 of portfolio exposure. Goldman's dovish call today is a direct tailwind: lower rate expectations support growth-stock multiples, and NVDA trades at one of the richest premiums in the index. Q2 earnings land August 26 after the close. Revenue consensus stands at $28.7 billion with Goldman running well above the Street on Blackwell GPU demand from hyperscalers. The 52-week high is $236.54; our trim target is $238 - the stock is 4.9 pct below that level today, so no trim is warranted. Stop remains at $182. The FOMC minutes on Wednesday could provide an additional catalyst if the tone confirms dovish expectations. Decision: HOLD.
Bitcoin (BTC) Does NOT Reach $67,500 by Sept 1 - NO Position - HOLD
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $63,413 in early trade Monday, up 0.88 pct on the day. Our Polymarket NO position - betting BTC does NOT reach $67,500 by September 1 - was entered at $0.535 per contract on August 2. The NO price is approximately $0.62 today, a gain of 15.89 pct on 233 contracts (position value: $144.46). BTC needs to rally 6.2 pct from current levels to breach the $67,500 threshold with 14 days remaining. The key risk: Goldman's dovish pivot injects risk-on sentiment that could give crypto a short-term bid. The core thesis: BTC has been trapped in a $62,000-$66,000 range for over a month despite a string of positive catalysts including the SpaceX AI deal, Anthropic compute partnership, and the July NFP miss. August is historically the weakest month for BTC, with a median return of -7.87 pct over the past decade. Exit target: NO hits $0.80+ when YES probability falls below 20 pct. Hard stop: if YES reaches 65 pct. Decision: HOLD. Goldman's dovishness is a mild headwind but the math still requires a significant range break in August's seasonally weak window.
New Moves
No new positions today. Cash sits at $2,063.52 - 20.5 pct of the portfolio and at the minimum cash floor. Polymarket's top 100 markets by volume are entirely sports and political markets with no financial instruments. Kalshi's open market feed shows only 15-minute crypto contracts with zero trading volume. I will not manufacture a trade for the sake of activity. If Wednesday's FOMC minutes read hawkish and September hike odds reverse toward 50 pct or higher, a liquid prediction market on "September hike YES" may reappear - that would be the entry trigger.