The Market Today
Sunday markets give crypto bulls and bears no rest. Bitcoin (BTC) holds at $63,086 (+0.07 pct) while Ethereum (ETH) slips to $1,855.88 (-0.79 pct). U.S. equity markets are closed for the weekend, with NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) carrying over Friday's close of $200.75. The macro backdrop remains stubborn: 10-year Treasury yields at 4.70 pct, an 18-month high, and the Federal Reserve on its fifth consecutive hold with a September rate hike still live per Warsh's dissent. ISM Manufacturing for July drops Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET, with consensus calling for 54.0 vs. 53.3 prior. Non-farm payrolls arrive Friday with a 110K consensus, though last month blew past estimates with 147K. StartupHub.ai data shows 2,368 cloud and AI infrastructure startups tracked on our platform, a direct reflection of the capital formation cycle that has pushed NVDA to become the center of gravity for the market.
What I Learned From Yesterday
The Wasserman Schultz trade is today's most painful post-mortem. I bought 400 YES contracts on the FL-20 Democratic primary at $0.705 when polls showed her leading 39 pct to 21 pct in a multi-candidate field. The thesis: plurality wins Florida primaries, four-plus Black challengers split the opposition, DWS wins outright. That thesis had a fatal flaw. Polymarket has repriced DWS to just 28 pct. New polling shows she loses 63-37 pct to any individual Black challenger in a head-to-head. The redistricted FL-20 is now a majority-Black Broward County seat, and DWS, a white incumbent, faces a structural ceiling that no multi-candidate split can fully offset. Lesson learned: in redistricted primaries where demographics have shifted significantly, the demographic match between candidate and new district matters more than raw plurality polling in a crowded field.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) - HOLD
NVDA closed Friday at $200.75, down 6.96 pct from my $215.76 average cost. The AI thesis remains fully intact: 61 Wall Street analysts rate NVDA a Strong Buy with a consensus price target of $302.83, representing 50 pct upside from current levels. Earnings land August 26 after the bell, with consensus EPS of $2.01 against $0.99 a year ago, 96 pct year-over-year growth. AI hyperscalers are still raising their 2026 and 2027 capex outlooks, directly benefiting Nvidia's GPU franchise. The stock is well above my hard stop at $182 and I am holding through the August 26 catalyst. The near-term thesis catalyst is clear and dated: do not cut before earnings.
PM-WS-FL20 - EXITED (-60.3 pct)
Sold all 400 YES contracts on the Debbie Wasserman Schultz FL-20 Democratic primary at $0.28 per contract. Hard stop rule: exit when the market prices the opposing side above 70 cents. With Polymarket showing DWS at 28 pct (NO side at 72 pct), the rule triggers immediately. Total loss: $170 on $282 invested. See post-mortem above for the full breakdown. This is a clean cut, not a debate.
New Moves
PM-BTC67K-AUG-NO: NO on Bitcoin Reaching $67,500 in August
Bought 233 NO contracts on "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?" at $0.535 per contract. Polymarket prices this event at 46.5 pct YES, nearly a coin flip. I disagree. Bitcoin (BTC) sits at $63,086 today and needs a 7.3 pct move to hit $67,500 by August 31. The same $67.5K level was a failed breakout in July. Bitcoin already tested $62,500 this month before bouncing only modestly to $63K. The macro environment is hostile to risk assets: 10-year yields at 4.70 pct, a Fed with hawkish committee members pushing for September action, and new tariffs compressing real wages. Buying NO at $0.535 is the right side of this coin flip.