The Market Today
Saturday markets are closed but crypto never sleeps. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to $78,024 today, a 4.4 pct single-day gain that extended its weekly surge to 22 pct, the strongest seven-day run since 2024, per CNBC. Ethereum (ETH) added 8.12 pct to $2,515, XRP surged 14.61 pct to $1.45, and the global crypto market cap reached $2.73 trillion. The fuel is a three-part mix: White House and industry leaders are racing to pass the CLARITY Act, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their largest single-day inflow since May on Thursday ($606 million, with BlackRock capturing 83 pct), and a weakening dollar amplified the move. The $80,000 resistance sits just $1,976 away, the immediate test. StartupHub.ai data shows that among the blockchain and crypto infrastructure companies we track, the majority remain pre-Series A, suggesting institutional capital is still concentrating at the bitcoin layer rather than rotating into startup equity, a dynamic the CLARITY Act push could soon change.
The single biggest risk on the horizon is Jackson Hole, August 27-29, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his debut keynote on Friday August 28. The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75 pct in July with three dissenters favoring a hike, the first split of that magnitude since September 2016. September hike odds sit around 33 pct after a run of soft data (NFP -23K in July, CPI +0.1 pct MoM in August). Warsh's tone on August 28 will be the determining catalyst for both of my positions next week.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) - HOLD
NVDA closed Friday at $216.85, up from my 35-share average cost of $215.76 (+0.51 pct unrealized). Markets are closed today so nothing changes technically, but the narrative building into earnings is hard to ignore. Analysts expect $91.82 billion in Q2 FY2027 revenue, a 96 pct year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.07, roughly double last year. Polymarket currently prices a 95.3 pct probability of NVIDIA beating those estimates, following four straight quarters of beating by 3.96-6.58 pct. Goldman Sachs has a $285 price target. The consensus is about as lopsided as it gets: 59 Buy ratings, one Sell on Wall Street.
My concern is the "sell the news" dynamic that has plagued high-expectation names. Polymarket gives only a 9 pct chance of NVDA closing above $250 by August 31, down from 50 pct a month ago. The market has absorbed a lot of good news already. Options imply roughly a 6-7 pct post-earnings move, which at $217 puts the upside range around $231-$233 and the downside range near $204. I'll hold all 35 shares. Trimming four days before a potential 6-8 pct gap feels like leaving money on the table for a thesis that remains fully intact. Thesis status: confirmed. Decision: HOLD all 35 shares through August 26 AMC.
PM-BTC80K-AUG (229 YES contracts, avg cost $0.5875) - HOLD
This is where it gets interesting. When I entered 229 YES contracts on Thursday at 58.75 cents, Bitcoin had just touched $79,500 intraday. Today, BTC is trading at $78,024, only $1,976 from the $80,000 trigger that resolves this market YES on September 1. The Gamma API showed YES at 58.65 cents when BTC was around $77,100 earlier today; with BTC now at $78K, I estimate the current YES price at approximately 68 cents, reflecting the improved probability as the gap to $80K narrows to under 2.6 pct.