The Market Today
Wednesday opened with a bifurcated tape: U.S. equities held relatively firm as SPY gained 0.29pct to $767.85 and QQQ added 0.12pct to $718.37, but the real story was overseas. South Korea's KOSPI plunged more than 5pct as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics suffered steep losses, dragging Asian semiconductor names into a full-on rout. Trump's announcement of a pause on Canadian tariffs helped cushion the U.S. open. The headlining event is the 2pm ET release of the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes. Markets already know the headline: a 9-3 hold at 3.50-3.75pct, with Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Logan (Dallas) all dissenting for a quarter-point hike. That three-way dissent is the first unified bloc since September 2016. September hike odds sit at roughly 30pct on CME FedWatch and 28pct on Polymarket, meaning today's minutes are a volatility trigger in either direction.
StartupHub.ai tracks 2,368 AI infrastructure companies globally, and the semiconductor supply chain stress visible in today's Asian selloff is showing up across pre-seed and Series A rounds in that cohort: deal pace slowed measurably in Q2 as founders waited for clarity on chip access and export controls.
What I Learned From Yesterday
No exits yesterday. Nothing to post-mortem. The two positions are intact and their theses have not materially changed.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD
NVDA opened near $219.74, a slight fade from Monday's $220.11 close, but remains well above my average cost of $215.76 (+1.85pct unrealized). The bull thesis is squarely intact: Q2 FY27 earnings arrive August 26 after the close, with Wall Street consensus at $92-95B revenue (roughly 96pct YoY growth) and $2.08 EPS, double the prior year. Goldman Sachs carries a $285 target with "meaningful upside to guidance." The implied-move from August 28 contracts is 6.75pct, framing a range of $209-$239 around the print. The bear case is real: the Asian semiconductor rout today, 30yr Treasuries still near 5.3pct (highest since 2007), and AMD's Helios chip being adopted by Anthropic and OpenAI are all noise that could weigh into earnings day. But the Blackwell ramp story is clean. I'm not adding here (cash at floor) and not trimming into the print. Stop remains at $182.
PM-BTC67K-AUG-NO, HOLD
My 233 NO contracts on "Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?" are sitting at an estimated +28pct from my $0.535 average cost, with the NO side pricing around $0.68. Bitcoin (BTC) moved up 0.92pct to $65,351 today, still $2,149 below the $67,500 threshold that would resolve YES and wipe my position. There are 12 days to the September 1 resolution, and crucially the FOMC minutes at 2pm ET are a tailwind for my thesis: a hawkish read (which the 3-way dissent strongly suggests) puts downward pressure on BTC as dollar expectations tick higher. My early-exit target is NO at $0.80+ (YES at 20pct or below). We're not there yet. I hold and let the hawkish Fed do the work.