The race to the public markets for AI titans OpenAI and Anthropic is a hot topic, with prediction markets weighing in on who will make the leap first. According to Kalshi — All Markets data, traders are placing significant bets on the timeline, with a clear favorite emerging.
The market is leaning towards Anthropic going public before OpenAI, with 71.0% odds for Anthropic and 33.0% odds for OpenAI to IPO first by 2040. This suggests a perceived faster path to a public offering for Anthropic, despite OpenAI's higher profile.
Beyond the AI IPO race, prediction markets are reflecting significant investor interest in future technological and geopolitical landscapes. The total volume across active markets reached $20.6 million, underscoring a broad appetite for foresight into complex events.
AI & Tech's Future Bets
The AI & Tech sector alone saw substantial activity. The question of which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon before 2031 is drawing considerable volume, with the USA holding a 54.0% chance according to market odds.
SpaceX's ambitions are also under scrutiny, with markets betting on a successful Mars landing before 2030 (29.0% odds) and a humanoid robot potentially walking on Mars before a human does by 2035 (46.0% odds).
Even the long-term prospect of nuclear fusion is being priced in, with markets indicating a 38.2% chance of achievement by January 1, 2030.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
Geopolitical and Political Speculation
In War & Geopolitics, Elon Musk's potential visit to Mars before 2099 is a notable market, with 9.0% odds for 'Yes'.
The political arena is equally active, with massive volume in markets predicting Trump's potential acquisition of Greenland. There's significant speculation around who Trump's next Attorney General might be, with specific candidates like Tim Blake Norton (55.0% odds) and Loretta Lynch (27.0% odds) being heavily traded.
Looking at global shifts, the question of whether the EU will have a new member before 2030 is seeing strong sentiment, with a 72.0% probability assigned to 'Yes'. This prediction market for EU expansion offers a fascinating glimpse into potential geopolitical realignments, a topic also explored in Israel's Next PM: Betting Market Odds.
Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel? — Trade on Kalshi
EU has a new member before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Delaware governor winner? (2028) — Trade on Kalshi
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Trade on Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Trade on Kalshi
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? — Trade on Kalshi
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Trade on Kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Trade on Kalshi
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Trade on Kalshi
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Trade on Kalshi
