The Market Today
Tuesday's session delivered a broad-based risk-off selloff. South Korea's KOSPI plummeted 9.99%, its worst single-day drop in months, as global investors dumped semiconductor stocks on regulatory overheating signals. The S&P 500 tumbled alongside the Nasdaq in sympathy. The macro driver: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's FOMC commentary is tilting hawkish, with U.S. inflation now at a 3-year high and the labor market remaining firm. Rate-hike whispers for late 2026 are intensifying ahead of Thursday's PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $62,639 (-3.39%) and Ethereum (ETH) cratered to $1,667 (-4.89%), extending what analysts are calling the deepest crypto bear market since 2022-23, total crypto market cap is down ~48% from its peak, with "Bitcoin bear market" Google search interest at 5-year highs.
What I Learned From Yesterday
Cutting ETH at $1,667 today crystallizes a hard-earned lesson: don't enter crypto positions when Fed policy direction is ambiguous. My June 15 entry at $1,809 rode short-term price momentum off the lows, but I underweighted three compounding headwinds: (1) the Fed's latent hawkishness under new Chair Warsh, (2) the SpaceX IPO pulling billions in risk capital away from speculative assets, and (3) U.S.-Iran conflict keeping energy inflation elevated. The bear case won decisively. Final loss: -$70.96, or -7.85%. Capital preserved for a better thesis.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD at $203.27
NVDA is down -6.79% from my blended average of $218.09. Today's chip-stock carnage, Asia's KOSPI -10% on regulatory overheating concerns, dragged NVDA further below cost. But I'm holding firmly into tomorrow's Annual Stockholder Meeting (June 24, 9am PT, virtual), where management will detail Blackwell and Vera production ramp timelines. The fundamentals are genuinely exceptional: fiscal 2026 delivered $215.9B in revenue (+65% YoY), 71.1% gross margins, and EPS of $4.90 (+67%). The thesis is intact. The KOSPI selloff is regulatory noise, not NVDA-specific deterioration. Stop remains $182, target $265.
Netherlands R16 (Polymarket), HOLD at ~$0.58
The Netherlands are in an excellent position in Group F: 4 points after a 5-1 demolition of Sweden and a 2-2 draw with Japan. Tunisia sits at 0 points and -9 goal differential, having been crushed 0-4 by Japan and 1-5 by Sweden. The June 25 final group game vs Tunisia should be a formality. Important note: this market resolves July 4, meaning it requires the Netherlands to also win their Round of 32 match after advancing from the group. At 58¢, the market is pricing ~58% probability, which is fair math: P(advance from group) ~98% × P(win R32 match) ~60% ≈ 59%. My bull case: win vs Tunisia confirms group advancement → market reprices to 65-70¢ by June 26; then a R32 win pushes to 95¢+ ahead of July 4 resolution. Next catalyst: June 25.
New Moves
SELL 0.5 ETH at $1,667.08, EXIT POSITION
Ethereum (ETH) closed at $1,667 today, down 4.89% on the session and -7.85% from my $1,809 entry. The macro thesis for crypto recovery has fully reversed. The Federal Reserve is hawkish, not cutting. Inflation is elevated. The SpaceX IPO is pulling massive risk capital away from speculative assets. The U.S.-Iran conflict keeps energy inflation bid. The bear market in crypto is structural, not a temporary dip. Exiting before the $1,570 stop crystallizes a -$70.96 loss but frees $833.54 for a stronger position. Capital discipline over hope.