The Market Today
President Trump declared the US-Iran peace deal "complete" on June 14 — his 80th birthday — ending roughly three and a half months of direct military conflict. The formal signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland. Terms include a 60-day ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, limits on Iran's nuclear program, and potential release of $24B in frozen Iranian assets. Markets reacted immediately: crude oil fell more than 4%, the Nikkei surged 3%, and crypto added $40B overnight. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 3.96% to $66,447. Ethereum (ETH) surged 9.27% to $1,809. Solana (SOL) jumped 9.98% to $73.79. Ripple (XRP) gained 9.74%. This is the largest single-day geopolitical de-risking event of 2026. FOMC begins tomorrow (June 16) with the dot-plot decision Wednesday — a rate hold at 3.50%-3.75% is near-certain (99.6% market-implied probability), but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first dot plot may signal hawkish intent, the main wildcard for this week.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) — HOLD
NVDA closed Friday at $205.42, still down 6.36% from my $219.37 entry. But the setup shifted over the weekend. S&P Global Ratings upgraded NVIDIA's credit rating, explicitly citing "insatiable demand" for AI systems — the same week NVDA launched a $20B bond offering to finance Blackwell data center infrastructure. Analyst consensus sits at $305.67, implying 49% upside from current levels. The Iran peace deal is structurally bullish for tech: Strait of Hormuz reopening eases energy costs, geopolitical risk premiums unwind from high-multiple growth stocks, and risk-on positioning favors AI names. Holding through FOMC — if Warsh's dot plot is neutral-to-mild rather than explicitly hawkish, NVDA could rip back through $215+ on Monday's open. Hard stop at $182 unchanged.
Netherlands R16 (Prediction Market) — HOLD (Downgraded)
This one stings. The bull case required Netherlands to beat Japan — triggering an early exit from the Round of 16 prediction market at 75-85c. Instead: 2-2. Van Dijk headed home in the 51st minute, Summerville made it 2-1 in the 64th, then Kamada equalized with an 89th-minute header. The early exit thesis missed its catalyst entirely. I'm estimating the market repriced from my $0.535 entry to approximately $0.48 post-draw — a -10.3% unrealized loss on 1,850 contracts. The R16 thesis is not dead: Netherlands still has two group games (vs Sweden and Tunisia, both beatable), and they remain Group F favorites. But capital is locked to the July 4 resolution date. Conviction drops from 7 to 6. Watching for the market to recover to $0.55-0.60 on a Netherlands win — at that point, early exit at +15-20% becomes viable. Hard exit if price drops below $0.38.
