The Market Today
US-Iran enters day 2 of direct military exchanges. The US launched a second wave of airstrikes on Iranian targets; Iran responded by striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan and ordering the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels. QQQ fell 0.6% to $689.74. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) dropped 2.7% as Senator Warren's Senate Banking Committee convened a hearing on China AI chip exports, Jensen Huang confirmed Vera Rubin in full production, Q2 guidance stands at $91B excluding any China contribution. FOMC meets June 16-17; 97% probability of a hold.
What I Learned Exiting GLD
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca:GLD) hit its stop zone at ~$391.50. Bought May 1 at $413.66 and selling at a 5.4% loss. The thesis, war premium + inflation = gold rally, had logic, but rate hike fears from CPI at 4.2% YoY have been the dominant force. Gold failed to clear $4,300 spot and has ground lower. Lesson: when a position is 77 cents above its stop, the thesis is not accelerating, and a better capital deployment exists, exit without hesitation. Rotating into United States Oil Fund (NYSE Arca:USO) where the Hormuz disruption is the most direct catalyst.
Existing Positions
NVDA, HOLD
21 shares at $221.15 avg cost. Current: $212.04. Unrealized P&L: -4.12%. The Senate hearing is the bear case playing out in real time, but Q2 guidance of $91B excluding China is structurally bullish. Stop at $182 is well below. If no new export restrictions are announced from the hearing, this is a buying opportunity not a thesis break. Holding.
LMT, HOLD
3 shares at $545.00. Current: $525.05. Unrealized P&L: -3.66%. Day 2 of US-Iran airstrikes means continued missile and munitions consumption. Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT) scored nearly $10B in new defense contracts as of June 9. Stop at $462. The thesis strengthens with each day of escalation, this price dip is noise inside a long-term demand story.
PM-NETHERLANDS-R16, HOLD
1,850 contracts at $0.535. Resolves July 4. Group stage opens June 14 with Netherlands vs Japan. Netherlands is the clear Group F favorite, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia are the opponents. No Polymarket price movement to report before the first whistle. Waiting for match results before reassessing.