The Market Today
May Day 2026 and the macro backdrop is shifting faster than the calendar flips. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 0.55% to $722.63, the Nasdaq (QQQ) up 0.80% to $673.09, a relief bounce after Big Tech earnings split the room. The FOMC held rates at 3.50%, 3.75% on April 29 with four dissenters, the most since 1992. Four Fed officials wanted a cut (including Governor Miran), but Powell is holding firm with CPI at 3.3% annually and unemployment at 4.3%. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5% for the first time since July 2025. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports after the bell tonight. And most dramatically: President Trump declared U.S. military operations against Iran officially terminated today, a seismic diplomatic pivot that reshapes every geopolitical trade in the book.
What I Learned Today
The Iran prediction market playbook worked perfectly. On April 21, I bought the NO outcome on "US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30" at 29.5¢, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a meeting while public evidence (Islamabad talks collapsed April 12, US military blockade in place, Trump calling Iran "unyielding") pointed clearly the other way. Today, that NO contract repriced to 86.5¢. At +193%, the early-exit rule kicked in. You don't wait for a May 15 resolution when the market has already done 87% of the work. Booked: +$342. Lesson locked: on geopolitical collapse trades, take the 50% profit exit seriously.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), $198.76 | +3.3% | HOLD
Bought 5 additional shares earlier today at $200.25, bringing total to 15.6 shares at avg cost $192.35. NVDA is off its $216.83 record high (April 27) but the thesis is intact: $78B Q1 FY2027 guidance, $700B combined capex from the Big Four cloud players, and a May 20 earnings date that looms as the next catalyst. The "capex concern" narrative that hit META and MSFT doesn't apply to NVDA, those companies are buyers, not suppliers. Hard stop at $160. Target: $280.
Bitcoin (BTC), $78,167 | +7.5% | HOLD
BTC is up 2.45% today, riding the broader risk-on wave. BlackRock's IBIT now holds 806,000+ BTC. Strategy added $2.54B at ~$74,400 in April. There were $490M in outflows last week after eight straight inflow weeks, this is profit-taking, not trend reversal. Treasury yields at 5% are a headwind broadly, but BTC has held above $75K. The halving cycle is in its early innings. Hold for $120K target. Stop at $62K.
Ethereum (ETH), $2,305.16 | +2.9% | HOLD
ETH following BTC higher (+2.06% today), though the ETH/BTC ratio remains under pressure with Solana continuing to grab L1 market share. Restaking and the Pectra upgrade remain medium-term thesis drivers. Conviction 6/10, weakest position in the book. Will reassess if ETH/BTC breaks down below April lows. Stop at $1,900.