Nvidia Earnings Preview, Apple's AI Macs & OpenAI's Chip Ambitions

Bloomberg Tech's Ed Ludlow is live from Silicon Valley discussing the latest in the tech industry. Nvidia is leading the Magnificent Seven higher, rebounding ahead of its earnings report tomorrow, looking to snap a seven-session losing streak. Apple also announced its new Mac Mini with major processor upgrades, while OpenAI is making bold claims about its custom 'Jalapeño' chip outperforming Nvidia's current offerings. The discussion delves into what investors are looking for in Nvidia's upcoming earnings and the broader trends in the AI infrastructure and software markets.

Nvidia's Earnings and Market Sentiment

With just 1.5 sessions to go until Nvidia's quarterly earnings report, the chipmaker's stock is showing a rebound, though it's off its session highs. The stock had experienced a seven-day losing streak, its longest since September 2022, wiping out over $400 billion in market value before the AI boom truly took off. The stock is now trading more in line with the S&P 500 on a year-to-date performance basis and from a forward price-to-earnings perspective. Analysts expect Nvidia to double both revenue and adjusted earnings, a remarkable feat that has some investors questioning the market's tepid reaction.

The full discussion can be found on Bloomberg Technology's YouTube channel.

Carmen Reinicke, a Bloomberg Tech analyst, notes that earnings haven't been a positive catalyst for Nvidia shares in recent quarters, with the stock falling after results in four of the last five reports, despite the company consistently beating revenue expectations and providing strong forward guidance. Key areas investors will be scrutinizing include the company's investments in the AI sector, the sustainability of its gross margins amidst rising input costs, and CEO Jensen Huang's outlook on future demand.

Reinicke explains that while Nvidia's growth is extraordinary, the market is beginning to bake in an expected slowdown in year-over-year revenue growth. This has led investors to look for other opportunities within the AI infrastructure trade, such as memory stocks, which have recently been volatile.

Apple's New Mac Mini and Mac Studio

Apple has announced its first new Mac Mini in nearly two years, alongside upgraded Mac Studio desktop computers. The new Mac Mini, available for pre-order and in stores on September 22, is seeing a surge in demand, becoming a popular tool for running AI applications locally. Mark Gurman reports that the new machines are significant upgrades, with the Mac Mini introducing the M6 chip for the first time. It will also be available with the Pro chip from the MacBook Pros rolled out in March. The Mac Studio will feature the M5 Max chip, and for the first time, Apple is introducing a new Ultra chip with up to 80 CPU cores and half a terabyte of memory capacity. These upgrades come with a price increase, with the Mac Mini's starting price now at $900, up from $600, partly to offset memory costs.

OpenAI's 'Jalapeño' Chip and Custom Silicon Ambitions

OpenAI has released performance results for its first custom inference chip, 'Jalapeño,' claiming it outperforms Nvidia's systems in speed and efficiency. Richard Ho, OpenAI's Vice President of Hardware, highlights that Jalapeño achieves high throughput and low latency simultaneously, a first in the industry. This is crucial for serving more customers more cheaply and providing faster response times for AI agents. Ho clarifies that the benchmarks were conducted using open-source, neutral methods, and that while Nvidia's latest systems weren't used due to their recent release, the comparison was against the best available products on the market.

Ho explains that the Jalapeño chip's design focused on reducing data movement, a key bottleneck for large models. This novel architecture, different from GPUs and CPUs, allows for the ultra-low latency that matters for gigantic workloads. OpenAI's focus on inference, rather than training, is strategic, as they partner with Nvidia for training chips and aim to increase their own compute capacity for inference to meet growing user demand at lower infrastructure costs.

The Broader AI Landscape and Private Markets

The conversation also touches on the broader AI landscape, with discussions about the infrastructure boom and potential financing vulnerabilities. The scaling of AI adoption requires significant data center construction and GPU deployment, drawing parallels to the telecom boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, concerns remain about the financing markets maturing before the demand and pricing can fully catch up, potentially leading to disruption.

In the realm of private markets, the success of the SpaceX IPO is noted, alongside the ongoing discussions about potential IPO windows. Companies like Anthropic are reportedly preparing for IPOs, with pressure on to get deals done before key events like the midterms and Thanksgiving. The market is anticipated to broaden, with more mid-cap IPOs expected in the $10 billion to $20 billion market cap range.

Canada's Tariffs and Trade War

Breaking news highlights Canada's response to U.S. tariffs, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing that Canada will double its existing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum products to 50%. New tariffs will also be applied to other U.S. goods, including furniture, clothing, and electronics. These measures, set to take effect September 8th, signal that Canada is prepared for a prolonged trade dispute, especially with the U.S. White House's threat of 50% tariffs on autos in January.

What's Next

The show will continue with a discussion on the software sector's performance and what investors are watching in upcoming earnings reports from key firms like Intuit and Salesforce. The conversation will also feature insights from the CEO of security startup Alice on safeguarding AI models.