The race to put boots back on the Moon is heating up, at least in the digital ether of prediction markets. Before 2031, the United States is the strong favorite to be the next country to achieve a human lunar landing, holding a 60% chance according to Kalshi — All Markets.
China follows with a 29.5% probability, a distant second in the speculative landscape. These odds reflect active betting on global milestones, showcasing a keen interest in space exploration's next chapter.
AI & Tech
The AI and Tech category on Kalshi sees significant volume, particularly around ambitious space goals. The question of who will be the next to send humans to the Moon before 2031 is drawing considerable attention.
Market data shows the United States leading with 60.0% odds, representing a potential 1.7x return on investment. The market for this event has seen $64.1K in volume, with $30.1K in open interest.
The People's Republic of China is the next contender, with odds of 29.5% and a 3.4x return potential. This market has accumulated $36.5K in volume and $18.9K in open interest.
Other nations, including Russia (R), India (I), and Europe (E), lag significantly, with odds well below 5% and high potential returns, indicating a low market confidence in their near-term lunar ambitions.
Beyond lunar missions, other tech-related markets are active. The possibility of SpaceX successfully landing on Mars before 2030 is seen as a 31.0% likelihood, while Blue Origin landing on the Moon before SpaceX holds a higher 68.0% chance.
Discussions around the future of AI also feature prominently. The question of whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first before 2040 has generated substantial volume, with OpenAI holding a 79.0% chance of going public first.
The possibility of nuclear fusion being achieved before 2030 is also a point of speculation, with varied odds across different target dates.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
War & Geopolitics
In the War & Geopolitics section, the long-term prospect of Elon Musk visiting Mars in his lifetime is being bet on, with a 92.0% chance he will not make it before 2099. For context on similar speculative bets, see our Kalshi: 50x Bet Alert + 7 High-Volume Markets.
Markets also touch upon geopolitical shifts, including the potential for EU expansion by 2030, where there's a strong 76.0% likelihood of new members joining. This topic was also covered in Kalshi: 50x Greenland Bet + 8 More High-Return Picks.
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Politics
The political landscape is dominated by speculation surrounding Donald Trump. A significant $3.3 million has been bet on whether Trump will buy at least part of Greenland during his term, with a 73.0% chance against it.
The potential for Trump's next Attorney General is also a high-volume market, with considerable betting activity on various potential candidates.
EU has a new member before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
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Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Trade on Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Trade on Kalshi
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? — Trade on Kalshi
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Trade on Kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Trade on Kalshi
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Trade on Kalshi
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Trade on Kalshi
