The question of whether Elon Musk will ever set foot on Mars before the turn of the next century is being actively debated on prediction markets. As of April 11th, 2026, the odds suggest a strong likelihood that Musk will not achieve this ambitious goal, with a 92% probability assigned to him not visiting Mars before August 2099. This market has attracted $75.3K in trading volume, indicating significant interest in the outcome.
This prediction market data, compiled from Kalshi — All Markets, offers a fascinating glimpse into public sentiment on future technological and geopolitical events. The specific market for Musk's Mars visit, titled "Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?", reflects a high degree of skepticism, despite Musk's persistent advocacy for Martian colonization through SpaceX.
AI & Tech Markets Show Robust Activity
Beyond the Musk-centric Mars prediction, other high-volume markets highlight investor and public interest in the future of technology and space exploration. The race between OpenAI and Anthropic to go public first before 2040 is drawing considerable attention, with a $58.9K volume for Anthropic IPOing first and $47.1K for OpenAI.
SpaceX's own Mars endeavors are also a significant focus. A market betting on whether SpaceX will successfully land anything on Mars before 2030 has seen $56.8K in volume. Concurrently, the prospect of a manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030 has a lower, 16% chance of occurring according to market participants, with $34.6K traded.
Further out, the question of human colonization of Mars before 2050 has accumulated $18.1K in volume, with an 83% probability assigned to 'No'. Even more speculative, a market asks if a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human does, with a close 50/51% split in odds and $45.3K in volume.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
Geopolitical and Political Betting
In the realm of geopolitics, the possibility of the EU expanding before 2030 is seen as highly probable, with a 76% chance and $6.5K in volume. This market is part of a broader trend of speculative betting on global events, as detailed in our previous analysis of high-volume Kalshi markets.
On the political front, a substantial $3.3M has been traded on the proposition that Donald Trump will buy at least part of Greenland, with various expiration dates reflecting different timelines for this potential acquisition. Another significant market, with $669.5K in volume, speculates on Trump's next Attorney General appointment before January 2029.
Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel? — Trade on Kalshi
EU has a new member before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Delaware governor winner? (2028) — Trade on Kalshi
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Trade on Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Trade on Kalshi
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? — Trade on Kalshi
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Trade on Kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Trade on Kalshi
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Trade on Kalshi
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Trade on Kalshi
