Betting on Peace: US-Iran Deal Odds

Prediction markets are buzzing with activity, reflecting significant trader interest in geopolitical outcomes. The combined 24-hour trading volume across key markets has reached $46.9 million, with total liquidity standing at $60.2 million, according to data from Polymarket — All Markets.

In the 'War' category, the market predicting a US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 2026 has seen $2.1 million in 24-hour trading volume and $17.5 million in total volume. Traders are currently assigning a 19.5% probability to such a deal materializing by the end of May 2026, with potential returns of 5.1x.

This specific market, focused on the potential for a US x Iran permanent peace deal, highlights a persistent undercurrent of speculation regarding de-escalation between the two nations.

The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market continues to dominate war-related predictions, attracting $8.8 million in 24-hour volume. This suggests a higher immediate trader focus on that specific conflict's resolution, as detailed in Ceasefire Bets: Israel-Hezbollah Market Dominates.

Another significant market, 'Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by', has seen $1.3 million in 24-hour volume, indicating ongoing concern about wider regional stability. Traders are betting on a cessation of hostilities, as explored in Iran Conflict Bets Hit $13.6M.

Beyond geopolitical events, the 'Crypto' section features substantial activity in markets related to Federal Reserve decisions and upcoming presidential elections.

The market for the 'Fed decision in April' shows a massive $4.2 million in 24-hour volume, with a strong consensus (99.4% odds) predicting no change in interest rates.

Political prediction markets are also active, with the 'Peru Presidential Election Winner' market drawing $2.4 million in 24-hour volume and the 'Next French Presidential Election' market at $1.5 million.