Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is offering a glimpse into what the future might hold, with significant volume concentrating on AI, tech, and geopolitical events. The total combined volume across active markets reached $20.2 million, reflecting a keen interest in speculative futures.
AI & Tech
In the AI & Tech sector, a prominent market asks: Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Currently, the odds favor OpenAI, with a 70% probability, suggesting market participants believe the ChatGPT creator will go public before its rival. This prediction, expiring in 2040, has seen $62.6K in volume for the 'Anthropic IPO first' bet and $51.0K for the 'OpenAI IPO first' bet.
Beyond IPOs, the AI space is buzzing with other speculative bets. The question of whether Elon Musk will visit Mars in his lifetime commands significant attention, with $81.1K in volume, reflecting optimism for the SpaceX founder's ambitions. Other space-related bets include whether SpaceX will land anything on Mars before 2030 ($59.7K volume) and a direct comparison: Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?, which has amassed $59.4K in trading volume.
Further out, markets ponder the feasibility of a humanoid robot walking on Mars before a human does by 2035 ($46.6K volume) and the timeline for nuclear fusion, with bets placed on achieving it by 2030, 2035, or 2040.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
War & Geopolitics
The War & Geopolitics category highlights substantial bets on long-term outcomes. The most active market, with $3.3 million in volume, speculates on whether Trump will buy Greenland. Other long-term political bets include who will be Trump's next Attorney General, with over $1.1 million in volume for that specific market.
The EU's expansion before 2030 is also a significant market, drawing $6.7K in volume for the 'Yes' outcome.
Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel? — Trade on Kalshi
Politics
In politics, the potential for Donald Trump to purchase Greenland is the dominant theme, with multiple markets totaling millions in volume. One market, set to expire in 2029, shows a 27% chance of Trump buying Greenland. Another, expiring in May 2026, has even lower odds at 0.4%.
The succession of Trump's Attorney General is another high-volume political prediction, with markets reflecting uncertainty about the appointee by January 2029.
EU has a new member before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Delaware governor winner? (2028) — Trade on Kalshi
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Trade on Kalshi
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Trade on Kalshi
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? — Trade on Kalshi
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Trade on Kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050? — Trade on Kalshi
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail? — Trade on Kalshi
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030? — Trade on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? — Trade on Kalshi
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Trade on Kalshi
