MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Bets

Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket — All Markets are placing significant bets on MicroStrategy's future Bitcoin holdings.

A market asking if MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, currently shows a 75.1% probability of occurring, with a substantial $5.9 million in volume for that specific outcome.

Another market, predicting a sale by the end of 2026, sees an even higher 90.5% probability with $2.1 million in volume.

Crypto Market Activity

The MicroStrategy market is a significant driver in the crypto category on Polymarket, which saw $1.6 million in 24-hour trading volume for this specific prediction.

Broader crypto market interest is also evident, with a market predicting Bitcoin's price in May 2026 attracting $1.2 million in volume.

Geopolitical Bets Dominate

The platform's highest volume markets are currently concentrated in War and Crypto.

The US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? event is leading the pack with $6.6 million in 24-hour volume across its various outcome predictions.

This market highlights significant trader interest in de-escalation, with odds for a deal by December 31, 2026, sitting at 72.5% and generating $6.3 million in volume.

Further underscoring Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, a market on whether an Iran closes its airspace by May 31, 2026, has seen $8.1 million in volume for the 'Yes' outcome, indicating strong market conviction.

Overall, Polymarket processed $33.0 million in combined 24-hour volume across its active prediction markets.