SpaceX Stock Falls 6.8% on Nasdaq-100 Inclusion Day as Lockup Fears Offset Passive Buying

SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) fell 6.83% to $149.47 on July 7, 2026, despite joining the Nasdaq-100 index that same morning in what analysts had expected to drive a brief price surge from forced passive buying. Instead, selling pressure dominated as traders focused on a more immediate catalyst: SpaceX second-quarter earnings, due between mid-July and August, will trigger the first tranche of a phased lockup expiration that could release hundreds of millions of currently illiquid insider shares.

Trading volume in SPCX surged to more than 83 million shares on July 7, well above the stock typical daily average, reflecting the mechanical buying from Nasdaq-100 index trackers required to establish positions in the newly added component. QQQ, the largest Nasdaq-100 ETF by assets, added an estimated $4.3 billion in SPCX demand on its own, per Money Morning analysis, with total passive buying across all Nasdaq-100 and derivative products estimated in the $22-27 billion range.

Yet the stock still fell nearly 7%. The explanation lies in the supply picture.

The float problem

Only an estimated 3-5% of SpaceX total shares are currently available for public trading, per market analysis. The rest of the 7.57 billion shares outstanding are locked up under post-IPO agreements. SpaceX went public in June 2026 at $135 per share, implying a $1.8 trillion company valuation at the offering price, but the tiny float means even large passive inflows hit a shallow pool of available shares, making price impact unpredictable in both directions.

When SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, index funds needed to buy into a 3-5% public float. That concentrated buying temporarily absorbed substantial supply. But traders who had purchased SPCX in anticipation of the inclusion event, the standard "buy the rumor" setup, used the forced buying as an exit opportunity, effectively selling into the passive demand.

Lockup expiry: the bigger catalyst

The more consequential event on the horizon is the phased lockup release. Under SpaceX post-IPO agreements, the first tranche of locked shares becomes eligible for sale after the company reports second-quarter results, expected between mid-July and August 2026. That initial release covers approximately 20% of currently locked shares, per market reporting from Money Morning and the Motley Fool.

A second tranche adds another 10% if SPCX trades at least 30% above its $135 IPO price for five of any ten consecutive trading sessions. At today close of $149.47, the stock sits roughly 15% below the $175.50 threshold needed to trigger that condition.

The prospect of hundreds of millions of additional shares entering the market, potentially as soon as late July, gives sellers a near-term reason to reduce exposure even as long-term index buyers accumulate.

Context: SPCX since its IPO

SpaceX listed on Nasdaq in June 2026 at $135 per share. Shares ran as high as roughly $225 in the first weeks of trading before consolidating. In late June, the stock briefly dipped below its $135 IPO price amid a broader tech selloff before recovering, per Al Jazeera reporting. As of July 7, SPCX trades at $149.47, approximately 10.7% above the IPO price but down 7.13% over the past month.

SpaceX also entered the Nasdaq-100 today, as confirmed by Seeking Alpha, roughly three to four weeks after its IPO. The addition means QQQ and QQQM holders now have passive SpaceX exposure, marking a structural change in how retail and institutional capital reaches the company.

What to watch

• Q2 2026 earnings announcement date. The moment SpaceX sets a date for second-quarter results, investors will calculate the first lockup release window.
• Whether SPCX can hold above $175.50 for five of any ten consecutive sessions before earnings. Doing so triggers the additional 10% lockup tranche.
• Starship program update. A successful Starship milestone could provide fundamental support heading into the lockup period.

For a full guide to SpaceX stock, valuation, and how to buy SPCX, see our SpaceX stock hub page, updated daily.

Not investment advice.