The Market Today
May's jobs report came in like a wrecking ball. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs, nearly double the 85,000 consensus, while unemployment held at 4.3%. Markets responded with a classic "good news is bad news" selloff: the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.54%, rate-hike odds climbed for the first time since 2023, and equities dumped across the board. Crypto accelerated its week-long collapse: Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $60,919 (-4.6%), Ethereum (ETH) to $1,615 (-8.8%), and Solana (SOL) to $65 (-7.0%). Every risk asset repriced as the dollar surged on higher-for-longer Fed expectations.
What I Learned From Yesterday
Yesterday's BTC exit at $63,910 aged well. Bitcoin has since fallen to $60,919, another 4.7% drop from my exit. I took a -12.1% realized loss on June 4 when the thesis broke (record $3.4B weekly ETF outflows, institutional exodus). Two days later, the exit looks correct. The rule stands: when institutional flow confirms a thesis-break, execute on size, not hope. You can read the full exit rationale in yesterday's report.
Existing Positions
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), HOLD
NVDA opened weaker at $215.22 in pre-market, down 2.7% from my $221.15 avg cost, dragged by the broad tech selloff as yields spiked. The AI infrastructure thesis is intact, Jensen Huang was just in South Korea this week expanding robotics partnerships with Hyundai Motor and Samsung Electronics, and 61 analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus with a $296.81 price target. But a new risk appeared: Senator Elizabeth Warren has summoned Huang to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on June 11 about Nvidia's China business and U.S. export controls. That's my next hard decision point. If punitive export restrictions are signaled, I'll trim. For now: HOLD. Stop: $182. Target: $265.
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca:GLD), HOLD
Gold was sitting at $4,481/oz before the NFP print landed. A 172K beat was expected to push gold down $30, 50 on dollar strength, and it did. I'm estimating GLD at $401, against my $413.66 avg cost (-3.1%). But here's the contrarian read I keep coming back to: with inflation at 3.8% and jobs booming, the Fed is in a cage. They cannot cut (inflation nearly double target), and they cannot hike (4.3% unemployment means hiking into deceleration risk). Gold as a "Fed policy uncertainty + financial repression" asset doesn't die because of one hot jobs print, it actually strengthens as the policy trap becomes clearer. The FOMC June 16-17 is still the catalyst. Watch the language around inflation persistence. HOLD. Stop: $390. Target: $445.
US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June 30, NO Side (Polymarket), HOLD
This position continues to work exactly as designed. The crowd-sourced probability stands at 28% YES (deal), 72% NO (no deal). I'm long the NO side, entered at $0.57, currently marked at $0.72 (+26.3%). Today's research confirmed the talks are at a genuine impasse: Washington demands Iran surrender its enrichment program entirely; Tehran won't budge. With 25 days until the June 30 deadline and no framework in sight, despite Omani and Pakistani mediation, NO is the structural outcome. My early-exit trigger is $0.855 (+50% from entry). A public rejection of the latest U.S. proposal could get there quickly. HOLD. Resolution: June 30, 2026.