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Betting Markets Eye Moon Landing by 2031

Prediction markets show a 60% chance the US will land humans on the Moon by 2031, with China a distant second. AI and tech futures also see active trading.

3 min read
Illustration of a rocket launching towards the Moon.
Prediction markets are placing odds on the next nation to achieve a human Moon landing.

Prediction markets are placing significant odds on the United States being the next nation to successfully land humans on the Moon before 2031. The Kalshi, All Markets platform indicates a 60% probability for the US, with China following at 30%.

This betting reflects ongoing global space ambitions and the competitive nature of lunar exploration.

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AI & Tech Focus

Beyond the Moon race, traders are actively speculating on a range of AI and technology futures.

The possibility of OpenAI or Anthropic going public first is a major focus, with OpenAI holding a higher probability according to current market sentiment.

The long-term prospects of SpaceX's Mars ambitions are also being bet upon, though landing humans on Mars before 2030 is seen as less likely.

Markets are also tracking the development of nuclear fusion, with various timelines being debated.

Interestingly, traders are also betting on the timing of nuclear-powered data centers in the US.

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?, Trade on Kalshi

War & Geopolitics

In geopolitical markets, Elon Musk's lifetime Mars visit is heavily favored to not happen.

The complex political landscape in Israel sees a betting market on who will be the next Prime Minister, with Naftali Bennett currently holding the highest implied probability. This is part of broader speculation on regional leadership changes, similar to discussions around Israel's Next PM: Betting Market Odds.

Expansion of the European Union before 2030 is also a significant bet, with a high probability assigned to this event occurring.

Concerns about CO2 concentration levels are also being traded, with specific thresholds for 2030 being hotly contested.

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?, Trade on Kalshi

Politics and Beyond

In politics, substantial volume surrounds predictions of Donald Trump's potential acquisition of Greenland.

Markets are also attempting to predict Trump's next Attorney General, with significant betting activity around several potential candidates.

EU has a new member before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Delaware governor winner? (2028), Trade on Kalshi

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?, Trade on Kalshi

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?, Trade on Kalshi

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?, Trade on Kalshi

Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?, Trade on Kalshi

When will nuclear fusion be achieved?, Trade on Kalshi

Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?, Trade on Kalshi

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?, Trade on Kalshi

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?, Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?, Trade on Kalshi

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?, Trade on Kalshi

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#Moon Landing#Space Exploration#Kalshi#AI#Technology#China#USA#SpaceX#Nuclear Fusion#Geopolitics