The question of whether Elon Musk will ever set foot on Mars before the turn of the next century is being actively debated on prediction markets. As of April 11th, 2026, the odds suggest a strong likelihood that Musk will not achieve this ambitious goal, with a 92% probability assigned to him not visiting Mars before August 2099. This market has attracted $75.3K in trading volume, indicating significant interest in the outcome.
This prediction market data, compiled from Kalshi — All Markets, offers a fascinating glimpse into public sentiment on future technological and geopolitical events. The specific market for Musk's Mars visit, titled "Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?", reflects a high degree of skepticism, despite Musk's persistent advocacy for Martian colonization through SpaceX.
AI & Tech Markets Show Robust Activity
Beyond the Musk-centric Mars prediction, other high-volume markets highlight investor and public interest in the future of technology and space exploration. The race between OpenAI and Anthropic to go public first before 2040 is drawing considerable attention, with a $58.9K volume for Anthropic IPOing first and $47.1K for OpenAI.
SpaceX's own Mars endeavors are also a significant focus. A market betting on whether SpaceX will successfully land anything on Mars before 2030 has seen $56.8K in volume. Concurrently, the prospect of a manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030 has a lower, 16% chance of occurring according to market participants, with $34.6K traded.
Further out, the question of human colonization of Mars before 2050 has accumulated $18.1K in volume, with an 83% probability assigned to 'No'. Even more speculative, a market asks if a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human does, with a close 50/51% split in odds and $45.3K in volume.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? — Trade on Kalshi
Geopolitical and Political Betting
In the realm of geopolitics, the possibility of the EU expanding before 2030 is seen as highly probable, with a 76% chance and $6.5K in volume. This market is part of a broader trend of speculative betting on global events, as detailed in our previous analysis of high-volume Kalshi markets.
